SERIE A TUESDAY: The Ultra previews BOLOGNA v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOLOGNA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We have a cracker on Betdaq Betting Exchange to enjoy on Tuesday night! It’s a huge clash from Serie A as Bologna host AC Milan. This is a big game for both sides for different reasons – Bologna are having a really difficult time this season and currently sit in mid-table; they are going to miss out on European football bar a dramatic run of wins. While AC Milan need every point they can get at the moment to try and keep up with Inter Milan at the top of the table. We have an interesting market – AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.18 with Bologna 3.8 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
Bologna have focused on being very solid at the back in recent years, and they’ve built their success off the back of that. They have been leaking more chances this season, and obviously as they were never fantastic in front of goal, that has resulted in them slipping down to mid-table. Their average xG created is 1.42 which is a mid-table figure in Serie A. They were always in the top three on defensive figures but their average xG conceded has crept up to 1.21 which is still in the top six, but just nowhere near as good as they were last season. Last season their average xG conceded was 0.86, which was incredible and the best defensive figure in Serie A.
With Bologna leaking more goals and chances conceded, it’s no surprise that they have struggled for results and it’s also no surprise that AC Milan come into the game as the favourites. While AC Milan are still hanging in there in the title race, Inter Milan have been playing much better football. Most xG fans are expecting Inter to run away with the title – they have the best attacking figure and the best defensive figure. They are the only side with an average xG created over 2.0 and an average xG conceded sub 1.0. AC Milan have actually been over-performing to get so close to them this season. Their average xG created of 1.53 is the sixth best in Serie A.
Their average xG conceded is 1.28 which is above Bologna, but so far this season they have been getting away with things at the back. Their actual average goals conceded figure is only 0.77 so there’s lot of points gained there. On balance, away from home the 2.18 feels a little short here on AC Milan despite Bologna clearly not being at the back. We have had some drama between these sides, but the last two meetings have had Under 2.5 goals collect. I would expect a pretty tense and cagey affair again here – Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.87 which looks on the high side when you look at everything here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SABoAc
