TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v MAINZ and ATLETICO MADRID v GETAFE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V MAINZ
7.30pm We have plenty of midweek action from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week, and we kick it off with action from the Bundesliga and La Liga on Tuesday! With Dortmund and Atletico Madrid both are home, most football fans will be expecting two home wins. We start the evening in the Bundesliga with Dortmund hosting Mainz – Dortmund dropped more points at the weekend with a draw against Augsburg and now they have a battle on a top four spot never mind the title. They definitely missed their chance to lift the title last season – that was their moment, they had it in their hands on the final day, and they blew it. This is the fixture that will bring that all that hurt as it was Mainz that held them to a 2-2 draw that day. Dortmund should have won, some players will probably still have nightmares – they finished the game with an xG of 3.51! However, Mainz took an early 2-0 lead on a day that the Dortmund players were going to be nervous anyway, and it just didn’t work out for them. They not meet Mainz in a very different position – after the weekend Dortmund are already five points off the top four.
Most football fans will be expecting Stuttgart to drop out of the top four given they finished in the relegation playoff spot last season, however they actually have a much higher overall performance figure compared to Dortmund. Stuttgart are creating an average xG of 1.77 while for Dortmund it’s 1.55. Stuttgart have been better at the back too; their overall performance figure is +0.57 while for Dortmund it’s -0.04. They are marginally conceding more than they create. They still come into this game as the odds on favourites, they home win is trading 1.55 with Mainz 6.0 and the draw is 5.0. Mainz have been very poor this season, and they’re sitting in the relegation zone with just nine points from their 15 games. They aren’t the worst performing side in the Bundesliga, but they just can’t buy a win. They’re really struggling to score goals, and they have also been keeping things as tight as possible at the back. Under 2.5 goals feels like a very big price here at 2.88, but Under 3.5 goals caught my eye at 1.76. Mainz aren’t scoring, and Dortmund just aren’t playing great football – I don’t expect goals like the market here, and the 1.76 looks a very nice position.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorMnz
ATLETICO MADRID V GETAFE
8.30pm Next we go to La Liga where we have another home odds on favourite as Atletico Madrid host Getafe. Atletico come into this game as the hot favourites at 1.41 with Getafe 10.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. I have to say I was surprised to see Atletico trading as short as 1.41 when I clicked into the market; Getafe have been having a very solid season and they sat up in eighth after the weekend results. Atletico Madrid had another setback losing away to Athletic Bilbao – the key point for the market here however is Atletico have home advantage. All their problems this season have come away from home; their four losses and a draw have all been away from home. They’ve won every home game so far, and they have faced a lot more difficult opposition than Getafe too. I can understand why most football punters would just expect an Atletico win here, but I still feel the 1.41 is a little short. That being said, I’m not rushing to lay them – looking at their under0lining numbers there’s a huge gap between their home form and away form. At home, they are averaging an xG of 1.82 which is obviously very high. Away from home, they are conceding more than they are creating – they’re really having a problem creating chances away from home.
Getafe were heavily involved in the relegation battle last season, but they are your classic mid-table La Liga side this season. They are only marginally conceding more than they are creating, but when I say marginally I really mean it – the difference is just 0.01! They have been very solid, and they are grinding out results. The obvious worry for them here is the difference in their home and away form. They are very similar to Atletico – very impressive at home, while really struggling to create chances away from home. Their average xG created away is only 1.16 while is very low, and they are conceding a lot of chances too. It’s hard to see past an Atletico win here given the under-lining numbers looking at both sides, but I like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.71. Getafe have been very limited away from home, while we know Atletico are very comfortable here. The home side can keep a clean sheet on their way to grinding out a win in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlGfe
