CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s Champions League games between BAYERN MUNICH v RED BULL SALZBURG and LIVERPOOL v INTER MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats.
BAYERN MUNICH V RED BULL SALZBURG
8pm The Champions League is back on Tuesday night and it’s crunch time in the second leg ties of the Last 16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have two pretty heavy favourites tonight, and I’m sure the home double will be very popular. We start the evening with Bayern Munich hosting Red Bull Salzburg and although Bayern Munich were the much better side in the first leg, they still have work to do here as it’s 1-1. Bayern finished the first leg with an xG of 2.62 but Red Bull Salzburg had taken the lead after 21 minutes and basically tried to defend their lead for the whole game. They very nearly made it too as it took Bayern until the 90th minute to level things up. Salzburg will approach this game with the same tactics, and it’s hard to see anything bar them putting XI men behind the ball. Those tactics will be a lot harder away from home however, and you get the feeling that if Bayern score early then the floodgates could open. The market is very confident in the home win here, with Bayern trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to see anything bar a Bayern win here. Red Bull Salzburg came through a decent Group with Sevilla, but they lost two of their three away games and drew the other. That draw away to Sevilla was probably their best performance in the Champions League this season, so you have to take that on board but really and truly this should be a one way traffic home win. It was interesting to see Bayern drop points at the weekend however, and they actually created a lower xG figure than Bayer Leverkusen too. Bayern have had a handful of setbacks this season, but that’s the first time they have created a lower xG figure – usually they have been unlucky with a lot of chances and not enough goals etc. With Bayern so short and their attacking nature, the market is of course going to expect goals here. It might be a complete riot, but I feel with the tactics of Salzburg we might not see the open game the markets are expecting. I am worried about an early Bayern goal and them winning 3-0 or 4-0, so I’m going to avoid unders or Salzburg on the handicap. I’m surprise to see Both Teams To Score trading odds on – Salzburg didn’t create much in the first leg and they won’t see much of the ball here. I’m happy to back Both Teams Not To Score at odds against.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBayRed
MATCH STATS
● Bayern Munich have won all five of their games in European competition when hosting an Austrian opponent, scoring 15 goals and only conceding three in return. Indeed, their most recent such fixture came against RB Salzburg back in November 2020, with Bayern winning 3-1 in a group stage meeting.
● This will be RB Salzburg’s 10th away game against a German opponent in European competition (W2 D1 L6), while their two victories both came in the UEFA Europa League (v Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in 2018). Their previous nine away games against German opposition have seen a total of 32 goals scored, at an average of 3.6 per game.
● RB Salzburg are looking to become the first Austrian side to progress beyond the Round of 16 in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League since FK Austria Wien in the 1984-85 campaign.
● Bayern Munich have progressed from five of their previous seven UEFA Champions League knockout ties when drawing away from home in the first leg. One of their two eliminations in this scenario did come in the most recent instance however, losing against Liverpool at this stage of the competition in 2018-19 (0-0 away, 1-3 defeat at home).
● RB Salzburg are winless away from home in the UEFA Champions League this season (D1 L2), and have only won once away from home in the competition across the last two campaigns (D1 L4) – a 3-1 victory at Lokomotiv Moscow in December 2020.
● Following Chukwubuike Adamu’s goal in the first leg, RB Salzburg have had four different players aged 21 or under score for them in the UEFA Champions League this season (also Adeyemi, Okafor and Sucic). Only Lyon in 2004-05 have ever had five different players do so in a single UEFA Champions League campaign (Bergougnoux, Berthod, Idangar, Nilmar and Essien).
● Robert Lewandowski didn’t attempt any of Bayern Munich’s 22 shots in the first leg of this tie, while this is the first time in his career he hasn’t recorded a shot attempt in consecutive UEFA Champions League appearances (77 minutes played v Barcelona and 90 minutes v RB Salzburg – 0 shot).
● Bayern Munich winger Kingsley Coman has completed 23 take-ons across his six appearances in the UEFA Champions League in 2021-22; the most of any player remaining in this season’s competition. Indeed, Coman completed seven take-ons in the first leg against RB Salzburg – his joint-most in a single UEFA Champions League game to date (also seven versus Barcelona in December 2021).
● 21-year-old Brenden Aaronson created five chances for RB Salzburg against Bayern Munich in the first leg – the youngest player to create as many in a UEFA Champions League game in the knockout stages since a 20-year-old Lionel Messi for Barcelona in February 2008 (v Celtic).
● Joshua Kimmich is yet to record an assist for Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League this term (0 in 5 games). Since the start of 2020-21, however, Kimmich leads all players in the competition for secondary chances created (26) and secondary assists (7); the passes that directly precede those supplied by the chance creator or assister.
LIVERPOOL V INTER MILAN
8pm With Bayern expected to win the other fixture, all eyes will turn to Liverpool v Inter Milan tonight! This should be a cracker, and what Champions League nights are all about. That being said, Liverpool should really win this tie. I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.6 when I clicked into the market, and although I’m happy to scale back stakes because they don’t “need to win” after winning the first leg 2-0, they are still worth backing. Inter recorded a confidence boosting 5-0 win last Friday night but that came against Salernitana who are nailed to the bottom of Serie A. In general, they haven’t been in good form and they needed that win to get back on track as they have been dropping a lot of points in Serie A recently. They seemed to be coming with the same charge that they did last season but when they matched AC Milan at the top of the table they lost 2-1 to them, and then dropped points to Napoli, Sassuolo and Genoa too. The Napoli draw was OK, but they were outplayed and lucky to draw. Granted, they were unlucky against Sassuolo but the Genoa performance was poor. They just aren’t firing at the moment, and they were completely outplayed by Liverpool in the first leg too. If you’re only creating an xG of 0.50 with home advantage, it’s hard to see how they’re going to turn that around at Anfield.
Liverpool only scored once at the weekend to beat West Ham 1-0, but it was a fantastic game of football – much more open than the score line suggests! Klopp won’t want this game to be as open, he would like a pretty boring and controlled game here with Liverpool having a 2-0 advantage. That’s why I’m happy to limit stakes – after seeing the first lay I’m very confident on the Liverpool win here, but they can’t be a Max Bet as they would be happy with a draw. I want Max Bets chasing the result with 15 minutes to go, and Liverpool don’t need to do that. I still feel that they will outclass this Inter side – Liverpool have been absolutely superb going forward this season, and with Inter struggling for form at the moment I can see Liverpool having a lot of the ball here. If Liverpool control the ball, the chances will come – they are creating nearly three goals per Premier League game on average this season which is incredibly impressive, and they are much better than this Inter side. This should be a smooth home win.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Inter Milan at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivInt
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won each of their three games against Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League without conceding a single goal (2-0 and 1-0 in 2007-08, 2-0 in this season’s first leg), with all three of these games coming at the Round of 16 stage of the competition.
● This will be Inter Milan’s third trip to face Liverpool in European competition – they have lost both previous games, with both coming in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (1-3 in the 1965 semi-finals and 0-2 in the 2008 round of 16).
● Only one team in UEFA Champions League history has ever lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie by 2+ goals at home and still gone on to progress, with Manchester United doing so against PSG in the 2018-19 Round of 16 (0-2 at home, 3-1 away). This is the only progression by a team in this first leg scenario in 41 previous instances in the competition’s history (40 eliminations).
● Inter Milan have lost four of their previous five away games against English sides in the UEFA Champions League (W1), although their victory in this run did come the last time one of these fixtures came in the knockout stages of the competition – 1-0 v Chelsea in the Round of 16 in 2009-10; a season in which they went on to lift the trophy.
● Liverpool have won all seven of their games in the UEFA Champions League this season – excluding qualifiers, they could become just the third team in the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League to win their opening eight games in a single edition of the tournament (after Barcelona in 2002-03 and Bayern Munich in 2019-20).
● Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Liverpool have kept more clean sheets in UEFA Champions League home games than any other team (15 in 24 games). In fact, among teams who have played more than 10 home matches in the competition this period, their clean sheet percentage of 63% is also the best of any side.
● Mohamed Salah has scored eight goals in seven UEFA Champions League appearances for Liverpool this season, only netting more in a single campaign in 2017-18 (10). The Egyptian is averaging a goal every 69 minutes this term however, which is his best ratio in a single season in the competition.
● Inter Milan forward Edin Džeko has scored in three of his last four starts at Anfield across all competitions, including the most recent two. The Bosnian hasn’t finished on the winning side in any of these three games, however, drawing 2-2 in 2012 and losing 1-2 in 2015 with Manchester City and losing 2-5 with Roma in 2018.
● Sadio Mané could make his 50th UEFA Champions League appearance for Liverpool in this game (currently on 49). This would make him just the sixth player to reach this milestone for the club (after Carragher, Gerrard, Riise, Hyypiä and Salah), as well as the first Senegalese player to reach a half-century of UEFA Champions League appearances.
● Inter Milan pair Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolò Barella (58 each) are the two central midfielders who have made the most progressive carries in the UEFA Champions League this season (travelling 5+ metres upfield), while the Croatian Brozovic has carried the ball further than any other central midfielder this term (1,438 metres).
