CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s quarter final second leg matches between BAYERN MUNICH v VILLARREAL and REAL MADRID v CHELSEA both including a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BAYERN MUNICH V VILLARREAL
8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League Quarter-Finals and we have some blockbuster fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We really have some cracking games to enjoy this week, and we start with Bayern Munich hosting Villareal. This tie is perfectly poised after Villarreal managed to win the first leg 1-0. Bayern started that game odds on, and although they are odds on again to win here, it does spice things up. The market is very confident on the home win here with Bayern trading as short as 1.28 to win in 90 minutes. They are trading a little higher in the to qualify market at 1.4, and although they have a fair bit of work to do – they didn’t win their first leg tie in the Last 16 before winning 7-1 here in the second leg! Villarreal have a massive task ahead of them, and although they managed to keep Bayern to an xG of only 1.23 in the first leg – it’s hard to see how they can stop them here. Bayern have been exceptional this season and Villarreal have been leaking chances lately too. I have to say I was surprised to see the first leg result.
Villarreal started the season very slowly, but then they really turned things around and shot up the La Liga table. They were playing their best football of the season when they met Juventus in the Last 16 – their xG figures were very impressive and they were creating chances for fun. Since that 3-0 win away from home they have gone off the boil. Obviously a 3-0 win away from home against a side like Juventus is eye-catching in relation to this tie, but since then Villarreal haven’t managed a win in La Liga. They lost to Cadi and Levante both in the relegation fight while conceding xG figures of 1.44 and 1.72 then at the weekend they drew 1-1 with Athletic Bilbao but they conceded an xG of 2.01. That win against Bayern came from nowhere to be honest, but you have to give them credit for it. That being said, with Bayern back at home now I can only see one way traffic. With the chances Villarreal have been conceding I feel Bayern will cover the handicap here and the 1.72 -1.5 goals is worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Villarreal at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayVil
MATCH STATS
● Bayern Munich’s defeat against Villarreal in the first leg was their 20th against a Spanish team in European competition, their most against sides from a specific nation. Both of the previous occasions they have lost both legs of a UEFA Champions League knockout tie have been against Spanish opposition (v Real Madrid in the 2013-14 semi-finals and 2016-17 quarter-finals).
● This will be Villarreal’s second ever away game against a German side in the UEFA Champions League – the previous one was also against Bayern Munich, with the Yellow Submarine losing 1-3 in the 2011-12 group stage.
● Bayern Munich are looking to progress from a UEFA Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg for the first time since the 2014-15 quarter-finals (1-3 away, 6-1 at home v FC Porto). The German side have been eliminated in each of the last five instances since beating FC Porto, with four of their eliminations coming against Spanish teams (Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid x2).
● Bayern Munich are looking to avoid being eliminated in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals in consecutive seasons, having also lost at this stage in 2020-21 (v Paris Saint-Germain). Prior to last season, Bayern had only been eliminated in one of their last nine ties in the quarter-finals of the competition (against Real Madrid in 2016-17).
● Villarreal manager Unai Emery is looking to progress beyond the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals for the first time in his career. The only previous time his side won a first leg in the knockout stages of the competition (Paris Saint-Germain 4-0 Barcelona in 2016-17), they became the first side ever to be eliminated in the knockout stages of the competition after winning the first leg by 4+ goals.
● In the reverse fixture, Villarreal became the first team to keep a clean sheet against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League since Liverpool in February 2019. Bayern haven’t gone consecutive games without scoring in the competition since the 2013-14 semi-finals against Real Madrid (0-1 away, 0-4 at home).
● Only four of Bayern Munich’s 22 shots in the first leg against Villarreal were on target – the fewest by a team to attempt more than 20 shots in a UEFA Champions League game this season.
● Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski has scored two hat-tricks in the UEFA Champions League this season, with both coming in home games (v Benfica and RB Salzburg). Only Cristiano Ronaldo in 2015-16 (for Real Madrid) has ever scored three hat-tricks within a single campaign in the competition.
● Villarreal’s Arnaut Danjuma has scored six goals in the UEFA Champions League this season, with only three players remaining in the 2021-22 competition having netted more (Robert Lewandowski 12, Karim Benzema 11 and Mohamed Salah 8). Not since 2004-05 has a Dutch player scored more than six times in a UEFA Champions League campaign, with Ruud van Nistelrooy (8) and Roy Makaay (7) both doing so that season.
● Leroy Sané has been directly involved in 12 goals for Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League this season (six goals, six assists). Since 2003-04 (as far back as data is available), this is the joint-most direct goal involvements by a German player in a single season in the competition, along with Mario Gomez in 2011-12 (12 goals, while also playing for Bayern).
REAL MADRID V CHELSEA
8pm Next we have Real Madrid hosting Chelsea. These fixture are what the Champions League are all about, however this tie is a long way to finish with Real Madrid winning the first leg 3-1. If we still had the away goal rule the task for Chelsea would be absolutely huge, but the fact that is gone means they do have a little chance. Real Madrid are trading around 1.13 to qualify. The 90 minute market is obviously a lot more interesting here, and we have a very open market with Real Madrid trading 2.5, Chelsea 3.05 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Even the Chelsea manager said the tie was over after the first leg which was a strange thing to say to be honest, you don’t usually hear managers saying that. Chelsea have no choice but to attack here, and it will be interesting to see what tactics they approach the game with. I doubt Tuchel will go all out attack from the start, but I think he should – surprise Real and really go for it. Real Madrid will want as quiet a game as possible here, and when you look at how they approached the PSG game away from home I wouldn’t be surprised if they just sat back and played out a very boring game here. If Chelsea decided to “grow into the game” then Real Madrid would happily accept a score line of 0-0 at half-time for example. It’s up to Chelsea to make the running here.
Chelsea clearly have a lot going on off the pitch at the moment. I said last week that the Real Madrid came was their first big test, and it was nice to see them bouncing back with a 6-0 win over Southampton in the Premier League after coming up short against Real Madrid. The La Liga side recorded a smooth 2-0 win here at the weekend against Getafe with no drama at all. They have been rock solid all season in La Liga but they did fold in El Clasico – that’s why I believe Chelsea should attack from the start. The opening 20 minutes will be fascinating to see who wins the tactical battle, but from a betting point of view I like over 2.5 goals at 1.89. Chelsea have to make this game as open as possible, and while Real will want the game to be quiet I don’t think they know how to not count-attack! I can see a very open game here, and to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chelsea win 2-1 and we’ll have a very nervous finish for Real. The goals market looks the way to play this game but I wouldn’t put anyone off a Real lay at the odds. They have conceded a few sloppy goals this season, and in La Liga they have actually conceded a higher xG than their actual figure so they should have conceded more too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaChe
MATCH STATS
● Real Madrid’s 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge was their first victory against Chelsea in European competition, having drawn two and lost three of their first five such meetings. The last side to win both legs against Chelsea in a UEFA Champions League knockout tie was Bayern Munich in the Round of 16 in 2019-20.
● This will be Chelsea’s first ever game at the Santiago Bernabeu in European competition, with last season’s away game at Real Madrid being played at the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium. No English side has ever won at the Santiago Bernabeu in the UEFA Champions League by more than a single goal, with Real Madrid only losing three of the 12 games overall (W6 D3).
● Real Madrid have progressed from nine of their previous 10 ties in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages when winning the first leg away from home, with their only elimination in this scenario coming against Ajax in 2018-19 (2-1 away, 1-4 at home).
● Chelsea trail by two goals from the first leg at Stamford Bridge, while they will have to equal their biggest margin of victory away from home in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages to enforce extra time (won by two goals on three occasions). They have only scored more than two goals away from home in the knockout stages of the competition once previously, beating Liverpool 3-1 in 2008-09.
● In Thomas Tuchel’s 16 games in charge of Chelsea in the competition, 40% of the goals that they have conceded in the UEFA Champions League (4/10) have been scored by Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema. Despite only having played one leg, this is already the most goals Chelsea have conceded in a knockout tie in the competition under Tuchel (3).
● Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti is looking to qualify for the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the eighth time in his career; the joint-most by a coach in the competition’s history, along with Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho (eight times).
● Karim Benzema has scored 11 goals for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League this season, already the most by a French player in a single campaign in European Cup/UEFA Champions League history. His 11 goals this season is as many as he had scored in the previous two editions of the tournament combined (six in 2020-21 and five in 2019-20).
● No Chelsea player has been directly involved in more UEFA Champions League goals under Thomas Tuchel than Christian Pulisic (6 – three goals, three assists), while the American also scored the Blues’ only goal away to Real Madrid in last season’s semi-final.
● Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema (1) and Vinícius Júnior (4) have assisted each other a combined five times in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any teammate duo. Indeed, Vinícius Júnior’s four assists for Benzema is also the most from one player to another in 2021-22.
● Chelsea goalkeeper Édouard Mendy conceded three goals in the first leg against Real Madrid, as many as he had in his previous 10 appearances in the UEFA Champions League combined. His error leading to Real Madrid’s third goal was also the first one he has made in 20 appearances in the competition.
