TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between RED BULL SALZBURG v CHELSEA, CELTIC v SHAKHTAR DONETSK and DORTMUND v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and FACTMAN stats.
RED BULL SALZBURG V CHELSEA
5.45pm It’s Matchday five of the Champions League on Tuesday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have some crunch game this week. It’s been very interesting to see the dynamic change in Groups over the last few weeks as we had back-to-back fixtures. None more so than this Group with Chelsea beating AC Milan twice. They went from sitting bottom of the Group to sitting top now, but it’s still an extremely open Group. On paper, Chelsea will be expected to this this tie, but Red Bull Salzburg are actually sitting in second just one point behind them and they have yet to be beaten in the Group. AC Milan will be expected to beat Dinamo Zagreb in this round of fixtures too, so the Group could change massively again after tonight! Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw at the weekend against Manchester United, unfortunately for them the equaliser came very late but in fairness Chelsea didn’t take the lead until late on either. It wasn’t a bad performance though, much better than their 0-0 draw away to Brentford last week. Chelsea haven’t exactly been firing lately – the game against United was pretty even, they conceded an xG of nearly three times what they created against Brentford and they also conceded a big xG of 2.65 away to Aston Villa prior to that. They weren’t beaten in any of those games, but it hardly inspires confidence.
Chelsea come into this game as the odds on favourites, but plenty of punters are willing to lay them – they are currently trading around 1.79 at the time of writing. When the sides met earlier in the Group it was actually Graham Potter’s first game in charge. Chelsea had just lost to Dinamo Zagreb and Thomas Tuchel was sacked, they then didn’t play in the Premier League because the Queen passed away, and Potter was definitely still settling into the new role. As he said himself, he had never been to a Champions League game never mind manage one. Chelsea didn’t play that well, but they created enough to say that they should have won the game. Red Bull Salzburg are definitely a few levels below Chelsea, but they have been reasonably consistent in the Champions League this season. I don’t want to jump on Chelsea at 1.79 here given their performances away from home recently. Salzburg have managed to keep all their Champions League games tight this season, and they won’t be unhappy with a draw here. Given Chelsea haven’t exactly been banging in the chances for fun either, Under 2.5 goals looks a nice option at 2.06.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RedChe
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CELTIC V SHAKHTAR DONETSK
8pm Next we move to Group F where we have a must win game for Celtic as they host Shakhtar Donetsk. Celtic have been average in the Champions League this season, a little out of their depth to be honest, and to find themselves nailed to the bottom of the table with just one point from their four games. Celtic still have a chance of getting into the Europa League which is their only aim now – to do that they’re going to have to beat Shakhtar Donetsk here and then Real Madrid away from home in the final Group game which seems highly unlikely. The only position is that they have home advantage here, and then Real Madrid might be certain of top spot and opt to rest players for their final game. There is a chance, it’s just a slim one! When this Group first came out you would have said Real Madrid top, RB Leipzig second and then these two will battle in out for the Europa League spot. It’s basically gone like that, except obviously Shakhtar Donetsk are in a stronger position than expected. From their point of view, a win here and a Real Madrid win over RB Leipzig could see them jump into second and then just need a draw against RB Leipzig on the final round of fixtures. You have to say it’s a very interesting situation behind Real Madrid who will top the Group.
Celtic have proven over the years in Europe that they are much more comfortable at home compared to away from home. However, they picked up their point in this Group away to Shakhtar Donetsk in a game where they could easily say they should have won. They finished with a much higher xG and had the better chances, admittedly in a low quality game. Shakhtar did amazingly to pick up a draw against Real Madrid in their last Group game, and they pulled off a 4-1 win away to RB Leipzig earlier. That came at a good time to play RB Leipzig because they were playing poorly; it’s still an impressive result though. To be honest when I look at this fixture I can only see a very close game, and I was surprised to see Celtic trading odds on 1.88. I’d fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m very happy with the Celtic lay here. Shakhtar have played the better football so far, and granted Celtic will be much more comfortable at home I still feel the 1.88 is just too short.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Celtic to beat Shakhtar Donetsk at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelSha
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DORTMUND V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We finish the evening in Group G where Dortmund host Manchester City. When this Group first came out, it was always obvious that Manchester City would top it, and it would be close for second between Dortmund and Sevilla. It’s fair to say that both have been pretty average in their domestic leagues this season, but Sevilla are having a very poor season. It looks like they’ll miss out on a top four spot in La Liga, and Dortmund will be delighted with a five point cushion heading into the final two games. They won’t be resting on their position though because it’s likely that gap is only two points heading into the final round of fixtures but Dortmund will be pleased to see that Sevilla’s final game is away to Manchester City. The only worry from a Dortmund point of view is that if they lose here, we’ll likely to see Pep Guardiola opt to rest a lot of players for that final Group game. However, given the strength of City these days their second XI is still world class and would probably top this Group from the start! Although City were held to a 0-0 draw away from home against Copenhagen in their last Champions League game, they lost a man early enough in that game and they will still be a popular bet here at 1.67.
Both sides recorded smooth wins at the weekend and scored eight goals between them. We should really have an end-to-end and open game here with two very attacking minded sides. Although it might seem silly for Dortmund to try and go toe-to-toe with this City side, it’s hard to see them sitting back because that’s just not in their nature. I think that will cost them here, although having said that the first clash between these sides was relatively cagey. We still saw Over 2.5 goals land though, with Haaland scoring the winner in the 84th minute. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.53 here and although the City win is tempting at 1.67, I just can’t see this game not having goals. The Dortmund fans will push them on and they won’t sit back too much, this City side just loves to play an open game too and I can only see an entertaining end-to-end affair. We have landed some nice Max Bets lately, and we can land another here.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorMci
CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH
