CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews MANCHESTER CITY v OLYMPIAKOS and ATALANTA v LIVERPOOL in the Champions League on Tuesday with recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
MANCHESTER CITY V OLYMPIAKOS
8pm The Champions League fixtures are coming up thick and fast! We have another interesting night and we start with Man City hosting Olympiakos. On paper, this should be a straightforward win for City and the markets agree with them trading as short as 1.22 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. That’s the shortest price of any side tonight! While City should win, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at the odds. They have yet to kick into gear this season; you can easily see that by looking at their xG. They aren’t creating the same volume of chances at their usually do.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Olympiakos are more than a few levels below City. They lost 2-0 to Porto last week, and while they did manage a 1-0 home win over Marseille before that – City breezed past Marseille with a 3-0 away win. I fully expect a City win but with them not creating a lot of chances, I like under 3.5 goals at 1.91. City can keep a clean sheet here without scoring many, and the 1.91 is worth a small investment. Apart from the Porto game, City games haven’t had a lot of goals recently – their xG numbers aren’t getting over two goals per game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.91 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMciOly
ATALANTA V LIVERPOOL
8pm This is a cracking fixture. Liverpool will have a real test on their hands here. They managed to come through against an in-form West Ham side at the weekend, but it wasn’t without drama after going 1-0 down. They are trading 2.18 and it’s highly likely we’ll see some price action in-running. Italian football fans will know just how good Atalanta are, you can see looking at their xG numbers they are very good sign. They actually topped Serie A last season on xG.
Liverpool have got on ok without Virgil van Dijk, but I feel the weekend shown the first signs of how much they will miss him. They got away with it, but against the top class sides they are likely to suffer. We all know how much talent they have going forward, but Atalanta are an impressive side and they can get a result here. Liverpool look at least ten ticks too short for me at 2.18. While they have won their last four, xG shows they are giving up chances. They conceded an xG of 1.18 against Midtjylland who are a very weak side, 1.69 against a Sheffield United side who started the season poorly. The signs are there that Atalanta might score a few here, and while their class might pull them through up front, I’d have Liverpool bigger.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Atalanta at 2.18 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAtaLiv
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