TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v NAPOLI and LIVERPOOL v REAL MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V NAPOLI
8pm The Champions League continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have some huge clashes this week! I’m sure all eyes will be on Liverpool v Real Madrid, and once again it is a shame that we can’t have two kick off times like the Europa League at the moment. Eintracht Frankfurt v Napoli is still a very interesting game in its own right, and that’s where we start the evening. Napoli come into this tie as the favourites to go through, but Id assume that they wouldn’t be unhappy with a draw here in the first leg. That being said, they are currently on a remarkable winning run in Serie A, and they are running away with the title! They notched up another win away to Sassuolo on Friday night, and that’s a seven game winning run in Serie A. Don’t forget too that they put together 11 wins in a row in Serie A prior to the World Cup too! They fully deserve the Serie A title this season, and they have such a big lead they won’t be caught now. That brings a little luxury of being able to focus on the Champions League from now on too because they will be able to rest their key players in Serie A. Eintracht Frankfurt won’t be in awe of Napoli though – they are having a decent season in the Bundesliga – it’s a very tight race for the top four this season, and who knows – maybe even the title after Bayern Munich lost at the weekend to drop points again!
It’s hard to find fault with this Napoli side to be honest. Their average xG created in Serie A this season is 2.0, and they are only conceding an average of 0.8. Incredibly impressive figures – not only impressive going forward but rock solid at the back too. Eintracht Frankfurt haven’t been playing at the same level, but to their credit they do create a decent amount of chances (average xG created is 1.5) and they are reasonably tight at the back too. They finished behind Spurs in a very open Group, and to be honest they didn’t do anything impressive in that Group. They drew 0-0 here with Spurs, but conceded an xG of 2.26 which was probably one of the highest xG figures Spurs have created away from home this season! They didn’t create too many chances – 1.37 was their best xG figure in the Group and it’s hard to see past Napoli here in my opinion. They come into the game full of confidence on a winning run, and Eintracht Frankfurt just aren’t playing at the same level. They are a solid side, but they should be outclassed by Napoli. As I said above, I do feel Napoli won’t be terribly unhappy with a draw here so for that reason I will keep stakes reduced, but the 2.24 is nice value on Napoli.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EinNap
LIVERPOOL V REAL MADRID
8pm When the Last 16 draw was made, Liverpool v Real Madrid was the standout tie! It’s a repeat of the 2022 Final, and Liverpool will be hoping for a different result this time! You have to say that this fixture now comes at a good time for Liverpool – they have won their last two games and they have played well too. Let’s not get carried away though, Liverpool still have a huge amount of issues at the back but at least they have new found confidence – I’d rather come into a game against Real Madrid having won 2-0 against Newcastle and Everton over losing 3-0 to Wolves for example! Real Madrid have had their own issues this season – they have fallen way behind Barcelona in the title race despite winning El Clasico before the World Cup and it will be interesting to see what tactics they go with here. It’s easy to be quite negative away from home in first legs, but you have to say that if Real Madrid attack Liverpool they will have success. Liverpool have been woeful at the back this season – there’s no other way to describe how poor they have been defending! They are conceding an average xG of 1.7 in the Premier League this season, which is usually a figure you see from teams in the relegation battle! It’s always entertaining with Liverpool though because they are still creating an average xG of 2.2 – if we see an early goal here we could see actual fireworks given the attacking talent on show, and Real Madrid have been leaking sloppy goals recently too.
Liverpool come into the game as the favourites, they are currently trading 2.38 and obviously the market is thinking home advantage is important here. There’s no getting away from the fact that Real Madrid would be reasonably happy with a draw here, and as I said above we’ll just have to wait and see how they set up their side from that point of view. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76, so the market is still expecting a reasonably open game. Despite beating ten-man Newcastle 2-0 at the weekend, Liverpool still conceded an xG of 1.98 which is still a big red flag. If Real attack Liverpool I just can’t see how they don’t score given how Liverpool have defended this season. Real are creating an average xG of 2.4 in La Liga this season which is clearly a very impressive figure, and not only that they have been a lot more solid at the back compared to Liverpool. Real are only conceding an average xG of 1.1 – I am tempted to go with the Liverpool lay at 2.38, but I’m going to take a chance and back Real at 3.15. I just can’t see the Liverpool defence working well if Real arrive in decent form, and their last four xG figures have been 2.14, 4.0, 1.81 and 2.35. Real are going to get a lot of chances, they just have to take them, and the 3.15 is too big to ignore in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid to beat Liverpool at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivRma
