CHAMPIONS LEAGUE LAST 16: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s second leg games between BENFICA v CLUB BRUGGE and CHELSEA v DORTMUND both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BENFICA V CLUB BRUGGE
8pm It’s crunch time on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week as we begin the second legs of the Champions League Last 16. We have some massive ties this week, and next week too, so we should have plenty of drama in store! Once again, it’s a shame that the two fixtures each evening kick off at the same time. I’m sure all eyes will be on Chelsea v Dortmund this evening, but we start with Benfica against Club Brugge. This tie is pretty close to over after Benfica won the first leg 2-0 away from home, but they should have really put the tie to bed. They finished the game with an xG of 3.05, and should have won 3-0 or 4-0. That would have been a lot more comfortable – although they have home advantage here you never know what might happen if Club Brugge score first! That being said, there was a clear gulf in class between the sides in the first leg. It would be a big shock if Benfica didn’t win here, and the markets agree. They are trading 1.48 at the time of writing, with Club Brugge 7.8 and the draw is 4.9.
Apart from a surprise 4-0 win over Porto, Brugge were very average away from home. They finished their other two games with xG figures of 0.35 and 0.34. Remarkably they picked up two 0-0 draws in those games against Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen. Atletico finished the game with an xG of 2.91 – they also finished their 2-0 loss against Brugge with a higher xG than they conceded, Atletico fans will be kicking themselves watching this tie. It’s hard to see past a Benfica win here – as I said above they were much the better side in the first leg, and they are having an excellent season in Portugal where they have extended their lead at the top of the table in recent weeks. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.48 on the Benfica win, but I’m going to look for some higher priced bets here. Club Brugge have to attack given they are two goals down, and this will really open the game up in my opinion. An open game will suit Benfica, who scored plenty of goals in the Group stage and are scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game in Portugal this season. Benfica are trading 4.2 -2.5 goals and I believe this is cracking value! The 1.5 goal handicap is also trading odds against for those feeling less brave.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Benfica -2.5 goals to beat Club Brugge at 4.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BenClu
CHELSEA V DORTMUND
8pm This is undoubtedly the highlight fixture of the evening and all eyes will be on London! Chelsea come into the game trading marginal odds on favourites at 1.97, but Dortmund have been on a long winning run since resuming their season after the World Cup and must be full of confidence. That’s something that Chelsea have been struggling with – results have been going well for them lately and morale has taken a hit. They did break their long run without a win at the weekend though – a hard fought 1-0 over Leeds would have done them the world of good. They really needed that win coming into this tie too! Graham Potter must be still feeling the heat – the UK press was saying his job depended on the two results over Leeds and Dortmund this week. He got the first win, but I would suggest if that was the case then just beating Leeds won’t be enough if they crash out of the Champions League. In fairness to Potter and Chelsea, they have been unlucky on this run. They’ve created good chances, finishes games with high xG figures and just haven’t got the results they deserved. The first leg here was a classic example – Dortmund won 1-0 but Chelsea finished the game with an xG of 2.34. I suppose it was just a case of the runs both sides were/are on – Chelsea couldn’t buy a win and Dortmund have won every game since the World Cup. They’ve created a decent title race in the Bundesliga too – they were lucky to beat RB Leipzig at the weekend; again conceding an xG of over 2.0 in a 2-1 win but you can’t knock them, they have been grinding out results.
Despite breaking their run without a win at the weekend, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Chelsea at 1.97. Things just haven’t gone their way lately, and they face a top team here. Chelsea have really struggled to take their chances so it will be interesting to see what tactics Dortmund come into the game with. Do they go for an open game and play to outscore Chelsea? It’s a risky play but likely their best option in my opinion. I feel if they sit back then that won’t work out well for them because it’s not their natural game. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here – I feel it would take a brave punter to take the 1.97 on Chelsea to be honest. I really like Over 2.5 goals at 1.95; Dortmund have the lead but they almost don’t know how to play a cagey game. Their games in the Bundesliga this season average 3.3 goals per game, and their xG is also over 3.0 in the games they are involved in. Chelsea games have been a little dull lately because they have struggled to score, but they are creating chances and they have to attack here. I feel we’ll see an entertaining game!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheDor
