TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the quarter final second legs between CHELSEA v REAL MADIRD and NAPOLI v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V REAL MADRID
8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League Quarter-Finals, and we have a huge week ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start the action on Tuesday night as Chelsea host Real Madrid with a seemingly impossible task of coming from 2-0 down after the first leg. Chelsea lost 2-1 here at the weekend against Brighton, and while Brighton are a very good side if you can’t beat Brighton what chance have you got against Real Madrid! It wasn’t only the result though – their performance was woeful. They took an early lead, then conceded an xG of 3.3 which is a very high figure – especially when they only created 0.51. I’m really looking at this game and wondering how Chelsea get a result – there really aren’t many positives for them heading into this game. Obviously that had dressing room issues with Graham Potter, which came out with hindsight, but appointing Frank Lampard was a bizarre decision and it hasn’t done them any good. They have lost their three games since, whatever about losing to Real Madrid or maybe even Brighton, but Wolves grinded out a win against them as well. Lampard has already displayed he isn’t “up to it” at this level, and it’s hard to see him setting up a Chelsea side on a poor run to outplay a very focused Real Madrid side.
Real managed a 2-0 win over Cadiz at the weekend in La Liga, but given the gap to Barcelona at the top of the table all their focus is on the Champions League from here. We have a very open market, with Real Madrid as favourites. At the time of writing, Chelsea are trading 2.96, Real Madrid 2.56 and the draw is 3.65. In my opinion the only negative in regards to backing Real Madrid here at 2.56 is that they already have a two goal lead so don’t need to push the boat out chasing the game. I will factor that into my staking, however Chelsea have been conceding so many chances and sloppy goals recently it’s really hard to get away from Real Madrid here. They really turn up for the big games, and although they had an extra man for 30 minutes last week they proved their were much the better side. Chelsea were able to turn things around here against Dortmund, but Real Madrid are on a different level and I can’t see that happening here. It’s not like Chelsea are playing good football domestically at the moment either, as I said above there aren’t many positives for Chelsea at the moment. It’s a Real Madrid win all the way for me, just reduced stakes because of the two goal lead.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Chelsea at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheRma
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
8pm Next we have an all Serie A clash as Napoli host AC Milan. Given how far Napoli are ahead in the Serie A table, it was slightly surprising to see AC Milan win the first leg 1-0. They had home advantage, and the San Siro was rocking, but Napoli have been so good away from home they would have fancied their chances. Napoli actually finished the game with a marginally higher xG figure, so they can say they were unlucky to lose. I touched on this in my preview of the first leg last week, but after the 4-0 win for AC Milan in Serie A recently and then AC Milan finishing a clash with Napoli earlier in the season with an xG of over double what they conceded, maybe AC Milan just have Napoli’s number this season despite the gap at the top of the table! Napoli have been absolutely wonderful in Serie A this season, and they definitely deserve to be favourites here – it’s always fascinating to see two teams who know each other so well in the Champions League. Both sides were involved in draws at the weekend – I wouldn’t be too bothered about Napoli’s result because they have the title won, but the AC Milan result was probably more disappointing because they are in a massive battle for a top four finish but they did rest players for this tie. They were “lucky” that Inter Milan lost again!
We have a fascinating betting heat with Napoli odds on favourites. They are trading 1.81 at the time of writing, with AC Milan 5.4 and the draw is 3.7. You’d have to expect AC Milan to try to sit back here and defend a one goal lead – they went into the Spurs game with similar tactics and they were successful. That being said, there’s a huge gap between Napoli and Spurs. AC Milan have been pretty solid stats wise this season, they have dropped a lot of points in Serie A but they haven’t given away too many goals. Napoli have obviously been superb, and their under-lining numbers are very impressive. Both sides are very solid at the back, and I feel we’ll have a very cagey start to the game. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.8, I’m not going to go overboard with the stakes but at 1.8 it’s worth backing. I can see AC Milan sitting back, especially for the first half, and I can’t see Napoli opening the game up too much too soon either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see AC Milan pull off a 0-0, but I can’t see a high scoring game and I’m happy with a small bet on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapAmi
