TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews MANCHESTER UNITED v GALATASARAY, LENS v ARSENAL and NAPOLI v REAL MADRID on Tuesday all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V GALATASARAY
8pm The Champions League returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Tuesday night, and we have another cracking week of European action ahead! Napoli v Real Madrid is undoubtedly the blockbuster fixture, but we have Arsenal and Manchester United both in action as well. Where better to start the evening than Manchester United host Galatasaray, especially after the Red Devils lost again at the weekend at home to Crystal Palace. That just piles more pressure on Erik ten Hag – I even saw #TenHagOut trending on Twitter! I really don’t see the issue being the manager at this point – blame has to land on the owners, and then onto the squad. Don’t forget this squad has been through plenty of managers at this rate. It was a very strange performance at the weekend, especially after beating Crystal Palace 3-0 in the Carabao Cup midweek. Their under-lining numbers are so poor in the Premier League this season though; their average xG created is 1.42 and their average conceded is higher at 1.59. I know United have dropped their level in recent years, but to be conceding more chances than they are created is definitely a major worry. It’s interesting times at Old Trafford!
There is a clear gulf in class between the sides here. The gulf in class between the Premier League and the Turkish Super Lig is huge. Galatasaray won the title by eight points last season, and they’ve got off to a decent start this season too. They are unbeaten from seven games, two points behind leaders Fenerbahce who have a 100% record. United should win here, but it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in them to be honest. Their home performances have been so average too. They are trading as short as 1.48 at the time of writing with Galatasaray 7.6 and the draw is 5.1. It’s clear United haven’t been playing with confidence in the Premier League this season – the Carabao Cup performance last week was their best, and if they play to that level here they should win easily, however there’s so much pressure here I can see United struggling to create a lot of chances. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.5 and I’m happy to have a small bet on that at the odds. I wouldn’t be surprised to see United grind out a 1-0 win with most of the crowd nervous, but this feels like a game for small stakes.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunGal
LENS V ARSENAL
8pm Next we move to Group B as Lens host Arsenal. As I said in my preview of Arsenal’s first game over PSV, it’s nice to see them back in the Champions League but they have been gifted a very easy Group here. They definitely got the easier draw possible really. There’s no one even close to their level, and they should breeze their way through to top the Group. Lens had a brilliant season in Ligue 1 last season; they only finished one point behind PSG in the end, but obviously PSG took their eye off the ball for the last few games. It was still a great performance from Lens nevertheless, but they have got off to a very slow start this season. They have managed to turn things around to put back-to-back wins together, but they are still sitting just outside the relegation zone at the moment. When you think about the gulf in class between the Premier League and Ligue 1, then factor in Lens are struggling in Ligue 1 too, it’s hard to see past an Arsenal win here. Looking at the under lining numbers, Lens are definitely playing better football than their results suggest in Ligue 1 but at the same time it’s not like they are creating a huge amount and then also very solid at the back.
A couple of seasons ago, you’d definitely worry about Arsenal away from home in what will be a very good atmosphere, but not these days. Arsenal have been immense away from home under Arteta, he’s certainly given them a backbone away from home to deal with the tricky moments. They come into this game trading odds on – currently trading 1.68 at the time of writing with Lens 5.9 and the draw is 4.2. Arsenal are creating more and conceding less in a more difficult league compared to Lens, and I would definitely have them a little shorter than the 1.68 here. It’s not a bet I want to go mad about, but I would expect Arsenal to breeze through this Group. The aim is surely win the first four games and then they have the option to rest the main starting XI for the final two games which is always important when you have a very busy schedule. Arsenal at 1.68 is a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Lens at 1.68 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LenArs
NAPOLI V REAL MADRID
8pm We finish Tuesday night with the glamour fixture of the evening as Napoli host Real Madrid in Group C. This should be a cracker, and we have an exceptionally open betting heat! There’s only four ticks between the sides at the moment with Real Madrid slight favourites at 2.7, Napoli at 2.74 and the draw is 3.7. That’s the closest market in the Champions League this week! The Group is made up of Union Berlin and Sporting Braga, and this fixture will decide who tops the Group along with the return fixture – it’s very hard to see anything bar Napoli and Real going through; and they started with two wins as well. Union Berlin could throw out a surprise, but it’s likely they’ll take the third spot and go into the Europa League. It was always going to be interesting to see how Napoli started this season after lifting their first Serie A title after so long last season; they have dropped points and people have been questioning is the fire still in the belly. After the weekend, they are four points behind Inter Milan and AC Milan at the top of the table. Real Madrid have also dropped points in La Liga with a loss away to Atletico Madrid recently, but they still top the table by one point from Barcelona.
This is going to be an exceptionally interesting game to watch in my opinion. Although Napoli have dropped points this season, they won’t be unhappy with their performance level. They are creating an average xG of 1.98 and only conceding an average of 0.95. That created figure is the best in Serie A this season, and they are only one of two sides who are conceding an xG of under 1.0. Real Madrid have been conceding more chances, but they have also been creating more. Their average xG created is 2.17 and average conceded is 1.3 – after the weekend they are the only side in La Liga creating an average xG of over 2.0. In such a big European tie, you’d expect the sides to be a little cagey but if we get an early goal here I’d expect things to kick off and we’ll get a very end-to-end game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75, but I prefer Both Teams To Score at 1.66. Both sides have conceded sloppy goals at times this season, and it also opens the game up with Real being away from home – I wouldn’t expect them to fully sit back, it’s just not in their nature whereas you’d expect Napoli to be quite cagey when they go to Madrid. I would be surprised if we didn’t see goals here, and BTTS looks the best option in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapRma
