TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between DORTMUND v NEWCASTLE, ATLETICO MADRID v CELTIC and MANCHESTER CITY v YOUNG BOYS all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
DORTMUND V NEWCASTLE
5.45pm The Champions League returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with some cracking fixtures on Tuesday night. These fixtures are the reverse of the last matchday, so we do have some intriguing talking points. We start the evening in Group F with Dortmund hosting Newcastle. Everything was going well for Newcastle before Dortmund surprised them with a 1-0 win a couple of weeks ago. That result has really opened up the Group; PSG top it with six points while Newcastle and Dortmund come next on four points with AC Milan on two sitting bottom. Obviously we’re going to have a lot more drama before the end of this Group – it’s been the most entertaining one in the Champions League this season anyway! Newcastle started the game two weeks ago trading odds on, but it was a very even game. It could have easily finished a draw – the xG figures were actually the exact same which is very rare. Dortmund grinded out a win, and that is to their massive credit given Dortmund haven’t been as strong away from home this season. They have marginally conceded more chances than they have created in the Bundesliga away from home this season.
Newcastle definitely aren’t odds on favourites here, and we have a very open market. There’s not much in it, but this is the most open market on Tuesday; indeed it’s the most open market of the week in the Champions League. Newcastle come into the game as the marginal favourites – they are 2.66 with Dortmund 2.76 and the draw is 3.75. Although both sides play a very attacking game domestically, we actually had a very cagey game two weeks ago. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Over 2.5 goals at 1.82. Dortmund have been a lot more solid at home too; their average xG conceded at home in the Bundesliga is only 1.11 but they did lose Der Klassiker to Bayern Munich 4-0 here at the weekend. Newcastle got a massive win at the weekend over Arsenal, although there was a lot of drama with decisions and VAR etc! Newcastle haven’t created as much away from home this season compared to at home, and while the draw is a tempting bet at 3.75 I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.18. There’s a lot that suggests we could have a very cagey game here, and it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see a similar game to two weeks ago. I’d have Unders as favourite instead of Overs!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorNew
ATLETICO MADRID V CELTIC
8pm We move to Group E next as Atletico Madrid host Celtic. Although Celtic are detached at the bottom of the table, things are very open between Feyenoord, Atletico Madrid and Lazio. At the moment Feyenoord have the lead with six points, but Atletico will be hoping they are sitting top of the Group after this game. They weren’t massively odds on to win away to Celtic, but they would have been disappointed with the 2-2 draw. Now with home advantage they will be fully expecting to win. The market has them trading as red-hot favourites – the home win is 1.32 at the time of writing with Celtic 11.5 and the draw is 6.0. Atletico got themselves into a great position in La Liga with a run of wins including Real Madrid too, but losing to Las Palmas at the weekend was a huge setback. They were only three points behind Real Madrid prior to the weekend, and they had a game in hand too – Las Palmas only came up from the Segunda this season too. Celtic are currently running away with the title in Scotland, as we all know things swing between Celtic and Rangers year-on-year depending who is going through a stronger spell but at the moment Celtic have been much better since Steven Gerrard left Rangers.
Even though Celtic are flying in Scotland, there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Celtic can hold their own with home advantage against the bigger sides, but they tend to really struggle away from home. I feel this is a case of how many goals can Atletico score rather than will they win. There’s no prizes for tipping 1.32 shots, but I would happily include Atletico in any Acca this week! Atletico haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances this season – their average xG created is 1.43 which is a mid-table figure really. Their overall performance level is only +0.13. They have been a lot better at home compared to away from home though, and we did have a very open game when the sides met earlier in the Group. Celtic might approach this game in a more cagey fashion, but once Atletico find a goal I can see a very open game here. Over 2.5 goals is a nice bet at 1.66, but I am keen to keep stakes low in this one.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlClt
MANCHESTER CITY V YOUNG BOYS
8pm We finish the evening in Group G as Manchester City host Young Boys. Manchester City are the massive favourites for this one, and it’s definitely a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. They are trading as short as 1.09 at the time of writing – forget that being the shortest price of the week in the Champions League, that’s actually the shortest price I’ve seen this season in all of Europe’s major leagues. City have been perfect so far in this Group with three wins from their three games; RB Leipzig are only three points behind them so City might not be able to fully rest players in their next game, but the aim will be to wrap this Group up as quickly as possible. City ran out easy 3-1 winners away from home two weeks ago; they did have to work harder than expected as Young Boys bounced back after City took a 1-0 lead. The xG figures basically highlighted City were fully entitled to win 3-1. The biggest issue away to Young Boys has always been their pitch – we’ve seen many a Premier League manager or player complain about the artificial pitch. I said at the time it was very much a “get the job done” situation in difficult playing conditions.
Back in Manchester now, it’s hard to see Young Boys even getting close to this City side. There’s just such a gulf in class between the sides, and with City trading so short in the match odds market we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. City banged in six goals here at the weekend against Bournemouth, and prior to that they played Manchester United off the park in a 3-0 win at Old Trafford. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.4, but it’s also expecting all those goals to come from City as Both Teams Not To Score is 1.46. With City in such good form in front of goal, I can’t see Young Boys keeping the score line reasonably respectable here. Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more goals and win) is trading 2.51 in the Correct Score market and that looks a nice option. This should be a one way traffic win for City.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciYou
