CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v CELTIC, PSG v NEWCASTLE and MANCHESTER CITY v RB LEIPZIG all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V CELTIC
5.45pm The Champions League returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with some fantastic fixtures on Tuesday! We’re at the stage of the Champions League now where some sides already know their faith, and we also have some massive games. Unfortunately for Celtic, their chances of going further in Europe are very bleak – they sit bottom of Group E with just one point from their four games. Lazio are still aiming for top spot, they are only one point behind Atletico Madrid but it’s pretty open at the top with Feyenoord just one point behind Lazio as well. This is a must win game for Lazio; they simply can’t afford to drop points at home to Celtic whatever happens in the Feyenoord v Atletico Madrid game later in the evening – that’s actually one of the most open markets in the Champions League this week. Lazio come into this game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.59 with Celtic 6.4 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. Celtic are running away with the title in Scotland again, and their xG figures are incredible but we all know there’s a huge gulf in class between Celtic and Rangers compared to the rest of the sides in Scotland.
That’s not even mentioning the gulf in class between the Scottish Premiership and Serie A – that’s massive. Celtic have basically be exposed to their limits at this level, and they usually put in much better performances in front of their own fans too. Away from home in the Champions League this season they have been poor; they got hammered 6-0 by Atletico Madrid and let’s not forget Lazio were able to beat them 2-1 in Scotland earlier in the Group. I find it very hard to see past a Lazio win here, and the 1.59 is big enough to back in my opinion. However, I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes because Lazio have been playing average football in Serie A this season. They’ve really struggled to create chances; their average xG created is only 1.07 which is the fifth worst figure in Serie A. They have been reasonably solid at the back, but that attacking figure is a worry. You have to look at the gulf in class between the sides and how far below Champions League level Celtic have been this season – Lazio should outclass them here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Lazio to beat Celtic at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazCel
PSG V NEWCASTLE
8pm Next we move to Group F for a massive game as PSG host Newcastle. At the start of October, Newcastle hammered PSG 4-1 in one of the best nights they’ve ever had – they sat top of the Group and were living in dreamland. Since then though things have taken a big turn for the worse, and they now sit bottom of the Group after back-to-back losses against Dortmund. I said it going into those back-to-back fixtures that occur in the middle of the Group; they can make or break you. In Newcastle’s case they have left them in a terrible position and realistically they need to win this game now. I don’t see how a draw suits them really. There’s only three points between Newcastle and Dortmund who top the Group, but PSG have a two point advantage over Newcastle so basically a draw won’t be good enough here whatever the result between AC Milan and Dortmund. As you would expect with home advantage, PSG come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.7 at the time of writing with Newcastle 5.5 and the draw is 4.2. Newcastle had a superb result at the weekend with a 4-1 win over Chelsea; they needed that after losing to Bournemouth and then also dropping points against Wolves and West Ham recently. Obviously Newcastle have suffered with injuries, and they face a huge task here. PSG haven’t been at their best this season, but they have started to put a winning run together in France, and put five goals past Monaco on Friday night here too.
While Newcastle were able to do a number on PSG when they had home advantage, it’s going to be a completely different story here. St James’ Park was absolutely rocking that night. Obviously the Champions League will always be the acid test for PSG – they could win Ligue 1 playing a few levels below their best to be honest. Their average xG created in Ligue 1 this season is 2.04 – the only side with an xG over 2.0 in France. Newcastle’s average xG created in the Premier League is 1.53 but obviously the standard is much higher. Both sides have been leaking goals this season, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.72 and I feel we’re getting a huge amount of value here. As I said above, a draw (while a good result) for Newcastle isn’t really worth much – they need to go for a win here and that should make the game very open with PSG naturally attacking at home. I was surprised to see Overs trading so high, and I feel it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgNew
MANCHESTER CITY V RB LEIPZIG
8pm We finish the evening in Group G with a top of the table clash as Manchester City host RB Leipzig. These two have raced away with the top two spots in this Group – as expected to be honest given the gulf in class between themselves and the other two sides in the Group. City have a perfect record with four wins from four games, while RB Leipzig have made light work of their others games apart from City. RB Leipzig actually had a superb record against City when they had home advantage, but away from home it’s been a different story for Leipzig. They have suffered some majorly embarrassing defeats here; 7-0 in March and a 6-3 in 2021. They just can’t seem to stop the goals when they arrive here! In fairness when you go toe-to-toe with City there’s only one result – the more open the game the more chances City seem to create. They come into this game as the heavy favourites; they are trading 1.35 at the time of writing with RB Leipzig 9.6 and the draw is 5.9. When the sides met earlier in the Group, City dominated the game to win 3-1 and were much the better side despite two of the goals coming in the last ten minutes.
Given RB Leipzig have had a decent record at home against City, that was an impressive performance from City. While you don’t get any prizes for tipping 1.35 shots, I couldn’t put anyone off City for any Acca this week – we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here however! The best place to start is the goal market; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 and to be honest I was surprised to see it trading that high. These two have always had goals and plenty of action when they meet – I was really expecting to see it trading around 1.4 when I clicked into the market. City to cover the handicap is also a nice option; they are trading 1.95 -1.5 goals and that is also a cracking bet in my opinion. I like both bets here to be honest; Over 2.5 goals and City on the handicap. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but given we’re getting 1.95 on City to cover the handicap I feel this is too big to ignore and it’s a nice position to finish what should be a cracking night.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat RB Leipzig at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncRbl
