TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews ARSENAL v PORTO and BARCELONA v NAPOLI both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V PORTO
8pm It’s a huge night of Champions League football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Tuesday! We have two superb fixtures absolutely perfectly set up after the first legs, and we kick off the action with Arsenal hosting Porto. Although most football fans will be expecting Arsenal to come through this tie, they have work to do after losing the first leg 1-0. Arsenal went into the first leg odds on to win away from home, so to arrive into the second leg behind is a big surprise. Although Porto scored the winner in the 94th minute, Arsenal barely created anything as they finished the game with an xG of just 0.68. It’s not that Porto played exceptionally well – their average xG created was only marginally over Arsenal’s at 0.77. Porto has a relatively easy Group outside of Barcelona whom they lost twice to; however they only lost by one goal twice. Arsenal obviously have to do better here. The Gunners come into the game as the red-hot favourites though in the 90 minutes market. The home win is trading as short as 1.26 with Porto 16.0 and the draw is 6.9 at the time of writing. We know what we’ll get from Porto here; XI men behind the ball so this game is all about can Arsenal break them down.
The timing of the first goal will be absolutely key here, as we saw with Bayern Munich against Lazio last week. Arsenal had to leave it late here at the weekend against Brentford – and we’ll get a lot of nerves within the ground if Porto can hold out past the 80th minute! I still feel the same as I did going into the first leg; we have a massive gulf in class between the sides and it will be a massive shock if Arsenal didn’t come through. Arsenal have an average xG created of 1.91 in the Premier League this season, and their average conceded at 0.88 is the best defensive figure in the league. Impressive figures, and while Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.64 the market is expecting Arsenal to do all the work here as Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.69. I’d expect Porto to play for a draw here, and they won’t be offering much going forward unless they find themselves in a situation where they have to. I like the Both Teams Not To Score bet at 1.69; Arsenal have been superb at the back this season and they will control the ball here, that along with the likely Porto tactics should see Arsenal keep a clean sheet on the way to winning.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsPor
BARCELONA V NAPOLI
8pm We have a European blockbuster next as Barcelona host Napoli. It’s fixtures like this that make the Champions League so special. The tie is perfectly set up after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, but Barcelona will obviously be the happier side given they have home advantage here. Taking away the away goal rule definitely helps the home side in these situations. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.94 with Napoli 4.3 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. We have two superb sides here, but they haven’t got as many points this season as their performance levels suggest! You could write a book on the Napoli situation this season; they have been hanging around mid-table this season while having the highest xG created in Serie A and not only that, they have the second best defensive figure too. They should be close to Inter Milan in the title race, yet they are going to miss out on European football next season. The problem? They just haven’t been converting their chances. Football is all about putting the ball in the net at the end of the day, and Napoli haven’t been doing that so it’s hard to have confidence in them.
At the same time, with Napoli playing such good football it’s hard to back Barcelona at odds on here. Eventually Napoli have to start taking some of their chances, and Barcelona have been sloppy at the back this season. They have steadied the ship in recent weeks; they’ve only conceded one goal in their last four La Liga games. However, they did draw 3-3 here with Granada, lost 5-3 to Villarreal and 4-2 to Girona – their three losses have come at home this season, so there is hope for Napoli. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.83 but I’m not sure I fully agree with that price – given the situation I’d expect a cagey game here. Napoli will approach this tie in classic cagey Italian fashion too; although someone has to go for it at some stage! Much like the above game, the timing of the first goal will be absolutely key but I feel Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 is the value call for limited stakes.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarNap
