CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s matches between ATLETICO MADRID v BAYERN MUNICH, PORTO v MANCHESTER CITY and LIVERPOOL v AJAX on Tuesday all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
ATLETICO MADRID V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm I must say I am loving the Champions League this season. There is less time between the fixture and although I’m sure it’s been a very busy and stressful time for clubs, it’s been excellent for the fans watching from home! We start another cracking evening with Atletico Madrid hosting Bayern Munich. I must say I find this market fascinating – Atletico look pretty short to me at 2.12 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It was only a little over a month ago that Bayern won 4-0 in Germany. Atletico didn’t create much, and it was a completely one sided affair.
I fully take on board that it’s tough to come to Atletico and win. But Bayern are rightly Europe Champions and I feel Atletico should be bigger than 2.12. My main worry for laying Atletico, and the reason why I am keeping stakes small, is Bayern don’t look to be in great form heading into this season. You might not know it by looking at their results, but in their last four games they have created xG’s of 0.85, 1.37, 1.58 and 1.37. Those are pretty low figures for Bayern and perhaps a sign that they are firing. Atletico have been solid this season, but they aren’t exactly banging in goals for fun either. Perhaps it’s a case of Bayern have already won the Group so they won’t be expected to play their best, but I still expect a closer game than odds of 2.12 reflect and I’m happy to lay Atletico.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Bayern Munich at 2.12 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAtlByr
PORTO V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Manchester City look to conform top spot in Group C with a win away to Porto but a home win would make things very interesting! They would be level on points then going into the final day, so we can expect City to be fully prepared and ready for this fixture. We all know how focused Guardiola is on winning the Champions League with another club, and topping the Group makes life easier going forward. City would have been delighted to score five at the weekend, especially considering they have been low on goals lately, and although that only came against Burnley that would be a welcome boost.
Porto are a decent side, but they shouldn’t give City any trouble here. City were comfortably the better side six weeks ago in Manchester when Porto created very little. City have been grinding out games recently rather than blowing sides away like they did at the weekend. It’s clear for everyone to see that they aren’t at their brilliant best this season – and while that’s a worry for them, we must remember how many levels above Porto they are. I think the 1.75 is very appealing on City here and it looks the best bet of the night.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Porto at 1.75 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQPorMci
LIVERPOOL V AJAX
8pm I must say, I can’t wait to see how Liverpool play here. Their last two performances have been poor. They created an xG of 0.20 against Atalanta here last week and then only 0.32 against Brighton – while also conceding an xG of 2.22. Where these lack of chances have come from is anyone’s guess because they have been playing some excellent football this season. I was pretty confident they would beat Atalanta again. They will more than likely outclass this Ajax side, but Ajax come here full of confidence as they have been scoring goals for fun lately. They have everything to play for here too as they sit in second place prior to this fixture, level on points with Atalanta and only two points behind Liverpool.
So it’s another massive European night in Anfield, it’s just a shame we won’t have the atmosphere that goes with such nights! I would certainly be worried about backing Liverpool at 1.75 given their lack of chances in their last two games, when you compare that price to the same price as City winning tonight I would much rather be on City. That’s not to say that you should lay Liverpool however, and with Ajax in good form and enjoying playing open football I think goals is the best option here. Over 2.5 goals is 1.46 and that looks worth a small investment in a fascinating, but tough to call, game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.46 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivAja
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