ULTRA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews ARSENAL v ATLETICO MADRID and VILLARREAL v MANCHESTER CITY both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm The Champions League is back on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have a cracking Tuesday night ahead! We kick off the action with massive Premier League v La Liga clash as Arsenal host Atletico Madrid. Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.63 with Atletico Madrid 6.4 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. It’s fair to say that Diego Simeone’s side haven’t been at their best recently; they grinded out a 1-0 win at the weekend but they are already well off the pace in La Liga this season. La Liga is a little further ahead of the other European leagues too having had nine matchdays. Atletico moved up to third on attacking figures after their win the weekend, but to be honest they are miles behind Barcelona and Real Madrid this season. For example, Barcelona have an average xG created of 2.39 and Atletico are on 1.64. Atletico recently beat Real Madrid 5-2 with home advantage however; but they have been a much stronger side with home advantage over the past few seasons. They are just going through a little traditional period where they have to hold onto Champions League football domestically, and it’s no surprise to see Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites.
Arsenal also grinded out a 1-0 win at the weekend away to Fulham. I think it’s already clear that they are the “strongest” side in the Premier League this season; the big question now is do they have the bottle for the title race? They have the best attacking figure in the Premier League, and the best defensive figure – they are the only side with an average xG conceded under 1.0 which is no mean feat in the Premier League. It’ll be interesting to see how Diego Simeone sets up his Atletico side here – they lost 3-2 at Anfield. After battling back from 2-0 down, they conceded an injury time winner. You’d think they would be quite negative; a draw isn’t a bad result here. Arsenal don’t take too many chances under Arteta too, and Under 2.5 goals makes appeal at 1.94. I felt this would be closer to 1.8 before clicking into the market, although we do have a lot of attacking talent on the pitch. I couldn’t put anyone off the Arsenal back at 1.63, but I do feel we’ll have a reasonably tight game and I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 more from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsAtl
VILLARREAL V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We finish Tuesday night with Villarreal hosting Manchester City! We have another very interesting market here – Manchester City come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Villarreal 4.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Villarreal have made a very positive start to the La Liga season results wise. They sit in third behind the big two Real Madrid and Barcelona which is impressive on the face of things, and although they have got away with a few things at the back, it’s actually hard to knock them. It’s not like anyone is looking at them as being in the title race – at the moment they have the fifth best attacking figure in La Liga and a mis-table defensive figure. That defensive figure might cost them eventually, but they did manage to hold Juventus to a draw here in the Champions League. It’ll be interesting now to see how they handle City – it’s clear to everyone that City haven’t been at their best for a while now, but they still have an immense amount of talent. They recorded another win at the weekend in the Premier League; that’s four wins from five with the dropped points being a 1-1 draw away to Arsenal.
City would have been disappointed with a draw away to Monaco before the International Break – that was definitely a case of points dropped given the gulf in class between Ligue 1 and the Premier League. When City were at their peak, their average xG created would be at least 2.0 – now it’s 1.56 in the Premier League so you can see the drop off in the performance levels. That being said, they still have the second best defensive figure behind Arsenal and they are still an exceptionally strong side. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.8 here given how good Villarreal have been playing; but it is a fascinating game from a point of view to see where City are this season. I actually feel we’ll have an open game here; as I said above Villarreal have been slightly getting away with things at the back this season and we know City won’t come here to sit back either. Over 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.65 in what should be an entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilMci
