THE ULTRA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews the Champions League Quarter Finals between BENFICA v INTER MILAN and MANCHESTER CITY v BAYERN MUNICH both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BENFICA V INTER MILAN
8pm The Champions League Quarter-Finals arrive on Tuesday and we have a massive few days on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! You would expect Manchester City v Bayern Munich to take all the headlines on Tuesday, but we kick off the evening with Benfica hosting Inter Milan. This is a fascinating game too given Inter have been dropping so many points in Serie A recently, and I have to say it – it’s so frustrating that we start both games at 8pm rather than 5-45pm and 8pm. Inter could only draw with Salernitana on Friday, and that made it six games in all competitions without a win for Inter Milan. Benfica also had a disappointing result on Friday night, they lost 2-1 at home to Porto; but they still have a seven point lead at the top of Liga Portugal with Porto sitting in second. I highlighted this in my Serie A preview on Friday, but Inter Milan have actually been playing very well football just getting very unlucky with their results. They created an xG of 3.51 in a 2-1 loss to Spezia, created an xG of over double what they conceded when losing 1-0 to Juventus, finished with an xG of 2.71 in the 1-0 loss to Fiorentina and then finished with an xG of 2.28 in their 1-1 draw at Salernitana on Friday. On paper, they have going through a mini-crisis results wise but performance wise they are actually doing everything right – they just have to start taking their chances!
Benfica have really impressed in the Champions League this season, so this will be a very difficult tie for Inter, especially away from home. They are also bossing things in Portugal, obviously we can’t compare the level in Portugal to Italy. Benfica beat Juventus 4-3 and drew 1-1 with PSG here in the Group stage. They did get the easiest draw possible in the Last 16 stage getting Club Brugge. I wasn’t surprised to see Benfica trading as favourites, but I was a little surprised to see them as short as they are in the market. Benfica are trading 2.2 at the time of writing with Inter Milan 3.6 and the draw is 3.35. I know the Inter results haven’t been good lately, and for that reason I am going to keep stakes reasonably low here, but I like the Benfica lay at 2.2. Inter are creating a huge volume of chances recently, and it’s just about taking them now. They are playing great football but not getting the results. They will likely be pretty cagey here too considering it’s a first leg, and I can’t see Benfica going all out from the start either – I expect a closer game than the odds suggest and I’m happy with the 2.2 lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Benfica to beat Inter Milan at 2.2 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BenInt
MANCHESTER CITY V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm It’s fixtures like this that make the Champions League such a special competition! Manchester City clash with Bayern Munich in undoubtedly the highlight of the Quarter-Finals. City will be the favourites to progress, but we all know they have had a lot of wobbles under pressure in the Champions League and it will be very interesting to see how they can deal with this Bayern side. It’s fair to say that Bayern haven’t been at their best this season, and they sacked their manager during the International break. They got the services of Thomas Tuchel now however, which you have to say is a huge win. He’s still settling in, and the crashed out of the German Cup last weekend – they recorded a 1-0 win over Freibrug then in the Bundesliga at the weekend. They have a two point lead at the top of the Bundesliga after beating Dortmund after the International break – usually they nearly have the title won at this stage of the season though! City have dropped more points than usual in the Premier League too, and they are still chasing Arsenal at the top of the table. It’s been very hard to fault them lately, and they have been banging in goals for fun. Their last four games have been 7-0, 6-0, 4-1 and 4-1! They haven’t faced anyone close to being as good as this Bayern side, especially set-up under Tuchel, and many will feel City are too short as odds on here.
The home win is trading 1.81 at the time of writing, with Bayern Munich 4.4 and the draw is 4.1. We have two top class sides here, and we should get some top class football too. Both sides have very similar profiles in their domestic leagues – Manchester City average xG is 2.4 attacking and they only concede an average of 1.0. Bayern Munich create an average xG of 2.3 and concede 1.2. We would usually get fireworks between these two, but it will be interesting to see do we see an open game in the first leg – I don’t think either side know how to sit back to be honest! There’s so much attacking talent on the display I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.68. I felt we’d see that closer to 1.5, however you can understand some traders want to lay Overs in a first leg. I’m very happy to take the 1.68 as Bayern have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season, I feel we’ll see a reasonably early goal and from there we’ll have a very end-to-end game between two sides who only know how to attack. We might see something like City v Real Madrid last season to be honest. I feel we’ll getting so much value at 1.68 that it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciBay
