TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the second leg quarter finals between BARCELONA v PSG and DORTMUND v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V PSG
8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League Quarter-Finals this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we have a wonderful week ahead. We had a thrilling week in the first legs, and everything is on the table heading in the second legs. Barcelona are in the best position heading into this week, they are at home with a one goal lead after winning 3-2 in Paris. That’s where we start, and we have a fascinating night ahead. Barcelona come into the game as the favourites at 2.28 with PSG 3.1 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. PSG had plenty of time to prepare for this clash as they didn’t have a game at the weekend – Ligue 1 is done anyway because they have a ten point advantage. As I said before the first leg, they will be judged on their Champions League results and at the moment it doesn’t look good – they would have been favourites to progress here too. However, despite being eight points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, Barcelona have been playing some great football this season. They have been superb going forward – their average xG created is 1.87 which is only a little behind Real Madrid – Ironically PSG actually have the exact same figure in Ligue 1! Obviously the gulf in class between the leagues is huge so Barcelona’s is more impressive.
With a one goal advantage, it will be interesting to see the Barcelona tactics here. You think they might want to make this game as boring as possible, but I just don’t think that’s in their nature. It won’t work for them either in my opinion because they have been very sloppy at the back at times this season. In fairness to Barca; it’s been a while since they conceded five to Villarreal and three to Granada here. They have kept six clean sheets in a row in La Liga now, including an away game to Atletico Madrid too. PSG have it all to do here, and they will attack which should open up the game. We saw a host of chances, and goals, in the first leg and I’d expect a very similar game here. Barcelona should have success with PSG chasing the game too – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.54 and Both Teams To Score is three ticks shorter at 1.51. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I prefer the Both Teams To Score option at 1.51. We saw an open game in the first leg and these two just gel together so well for an entertaining game. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarPsg
DORTMUND V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We finish Tuesday night with Dortmund hosting Atletico Madrid. As I pointed out in the first leg last week, home advantage is going to be absolutely massive in this tie and that proved to be right in the first leg. However, Atletico conceding towards the end leaves them in an uncomfortable position of only leading by one goal. At 2-0 things looked comfortable, Dortmund will still fancy their chances here to be honest – we saw Atletico turn a one goal difference around in the Last 16 against Inter Milan when they had home advantage in the second leg. As I said in the first leg, the two sides have very similar under-lining numbers and both have been pretty average away from home this season. Dortmund have been conceding more chances than they have been creating away from home; their average xG conceded away is pretty high at 1.58. At home they have been much better at the back – that average xG conceded drops to 1.31. They have been creating much more too because their average xG created is 1.9 which is an impressive figure. Atletico Madrid have dropped points twelve times in La Liga this season, and ten of those have come away from home. They’ve only lost once all season at home in La Liga, and that was to Barcelona.
They aren’t quite conceding the same level of chances as Dortmund away, but their average xG conceded is still pretty high at 1.42 considering they are one of the best sides in La Liga. We could easily need more than the 90 minutes to find a winner over the tie, but Dortmund come into the 90 minutes market as the favourites at 2.34 with Atletico Madrid 3.2 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. We’ve saw Diego Simeone’s side grind out results in tight situations time and time again over the years, and he will have Atletico very well set up at the back here. They will know the task, and they’ll be aiming to make this game as boring as possible. I was slightly surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.73 when I clicked into the market, even if Dortmund score first Atletico don’t have to completely come out of their shell given it would go to extra time. I still stand by the fact that home advantage is massive here – we landed a bet on Atletico in the first leg and I do like the 2.34 on Dortmund here too, however Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 is the best value in my opinion given Atletico’s likely tactics will be very negative.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorAtl
