TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s matches between WOLFSBURG v DORTMUND, BAYERN MUNICH v WERDER BREMEN and OSASUNA v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLFSBURG V DORTMUND
5.30pm The fixtures just keep coming from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have another very busy midweek schedule! The domestic leagues are trying to cram in as many fixtures as possible before we head into the winter World Cup, and it’s a very interesting time ahead. We’ve obviously never had a winter World Cup before – some players are going to arrive into that World Cup tired, so imagine what they will arrive back like. Interesting times ahead! We have some cracking action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga this week, and we kick off Tuesday evening in the Bundesliga with Wolfsburg hosting Dortmund. Both these sides recorded smooth wins at the weekend with Wolfsburg beating Mainz 3-0 and Dortmund winning by the same score line against Bochum. Wolfsburg had a very slow start to the season – indeed they only won once in their first seven games but they have found their groove now and started to move up the table. Although they finished fourth in the 2020/21 season, they have pretty much become a mid-table side since then which is a same but it’s clear to see where they have their problems.
Wolfsburg have been conceding far too many chances and sloppy goals. Their average xG conceded this season is as high as 1.7. Indeed, they are actually over-performing this season up front and at the back – I would expect to see them finish in or around 12th again. As expected, Bayern went back to the top of the table at the weekend, but Dortmund are only three points behind them. Without Erling Haaland, three points already feels like a decent gap but all Dortmund can do is keep winning and see what happens. They have put together three wins in a row, but their performances haven’t been overly impressive. For example, they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 away from home but they conceded an xG of 1.91 and created just 0.74. They’ve had their fair share of luck and bad luck, and their position doesn’t move much on the xG table. It’s fair to say that Dortmund are the better side here, but I didn’t expect to see them trading as short as 2.14 when I clicked into the market. From a value point of view, it’s hard to get away from the Dortmund lay here – I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Wolfsburg at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolDor
BAYERN MUNICH V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as the German Champions are back in action as Bayern Munich host Werder Bremen. It was a good weekend for Bayern as they went back to the top of the table with Union Berlin dropping points. As I said at the weekend and even last week, it always felt like when rather than if Bayern would return to the top and here we are. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like we might have a reasonably close title race but in the last few weeks Bayern have stepped up a gear while the others have dropped points. There’s still a few sides in touch at the moment, but the title only seems to be heading in one direction – I suppose you might say that was never a surprise and things are going as expected from the start of the season! It’s also not a surprise to see Bayern trading as short as 1.2 – that’s the shortest price in the Bundesliga this season, and to be honest it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable home win here. Werder Bremen will be absolutely delighted with their start to the season – they start the midweek round of fixtures sitting in 7th place just outside the European spots. That’s impressive given they have only came up from the Bundesliga 2 this season, and they didn’t even top that table. I’m sure their aim would have been to try to avoid a relegation battle but they can even dream of a European spot now, although unlikely.
Despite the good start to the season from Werder Bremen, it’s hard to see anything other than a Bayern win here. I feel it’s a case of how many goals will Bayern score rather than will they win. Although I’m not going to recommend a 1.2 shot because you get no prizes for tipping prices that short, I couldn’t put anyone off including them in any Betdaq Multiple this week. Bayern are creating an average xG of 2.5 this season which is obviously impressive, but they are also conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season. A good example was their game at the weekend when they won 3-2, and with Werder Bremen creating an average xG of 1.5 I feel Both Teams To Score is a very nice bet here at 1.71. Bayern haven’t been afraid to play a very open game this season too, and if they went 3-0 up I can see them easing off again; much like they did at the weekend. There’s a lot of ways I can see BTTS winning here tactics wise, and it’s a very confident bet at 1.71.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Both Teams To Score at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayWer
OSASUNA V BARCELONA
8.30pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Osasuna host Barcelona. This is going to be a very interesting fixture, and I’m sure we’ll have some very big opinions on the Barcelona price at 1.52 on either side of the book. Osasuna have been your “classic” mid-table La Liga side, but they have started this season very well. In the last three seasons, they have finished 12th, 11th and 10th – but after winning at the weekend they moved into the European spots. Obviously given the very poor start to the season from Sevilla, you could say that Osasuna are “in the mix” for that fourth spot when you look at the table, but you’d have to expect them to fall away as the season goes on. Nevertheless, this should be a reasonably tough fixture for Barcelona. Osasuna have been trying to keep games as tight as possible this season, and it will be interesting to see how they cope with this Barcelona side who have been incredible going forward this season. Barcelona “only” beat Almeria 2-0 at the weekend – I say only because they finished the game with an xG of 4.57 and could have easily scored six or more. You actually can’t knock the Barcelona under-lining numbers this season, they have been incredibly impressive.
I know they got knocked out of the Champions League at the Group stage again, but they did have a very tough Group and they were also unlucky. In La Liga this season, their average xG is a whopping 2.9 and they are only conceding an average of 0.8. That’s highly impressive whatever way you look at it, and it seems that they are back to their best. Even though they lost El Clasico this season, they are going to make a massive run at the title this season. For tonight, I can see Osasuna being very negative here – I see Barcelona having a huge amount of the ball, and keeping a clean sheet too. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 2.06 and that’s looks very nice value. I would also be interesting in Under 3.5 goals at the same price as the Barcelona win, because I can see them “grinding” out a 2-0 or 3-0 and just controlling the game. Osasuna are also scoring less than they are creating too, so they clearly haven’t been fully firing in front of goal – I would be surprised if Barcelona couldn’t keep a clean sheet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaBar
