TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the Coppa Italia semi-final between JUVENTUS v INTER MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V INTER MILAN
8pm It’s the Semi-Final stage of the Coppa Italia on Tuesday night, and we have an absolute cracker on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Juventus take on Inter Milan in the first leg, with both sides desperate for some success this season. Napoli are running away with the Serie A title at the moment while three losses in a row for Inter have left them in a battle for a Top Four finish and Juventus look like missing out on the European spots in the league after getting docked 15 points after an investigation into their transfer dealings.
Juventus have actually been racking up the wins since the 15 point deduction. They lost 2-0 against Monza in the days when the news broke, and since then they have won seven of their eights Serie A games. Their only loss was a 1-0 defeat away to Jose Mourinho’s Roma; a game where they finished with a higher xG figure. Inter have put together three losses, one of those was a 1-0 loss against Juventus too. They can say that they have been unlucky though; they have finished each game with a higher xG figure created than conceded.
I have to say this tie is perfectly set up looking at the situation, especially given neither can achieve anything in Serie A. Both will have bigger plans in Europe of course; Inter are in a Champions League Quarter-Final and Juventus are in a Europa League Quarter-Final. I feel it’s a bigger tie for Juventus – they have home advantage and they’ll need to take something into the second leg at the end of the month, but of also it gives them a chance to get into Europe next season too. They sit in seventh in Serie A at the moment, but they are only four points behind the top six now.
As you would expect, we have a reasonably open market. Juventus are trading 2.45 at the time of writing as the favourites, with Inter 3.3 and the draw is 3.25. Given this is over two legs, you’d have to say Inter won’t be unhappy with a draw here. I’d expect them to go into the game with that mindset, so it’s hard to see a very open game here. The sides met very recently in Serie A, and we only saw one goal – a 1-0 win for Juventus – in a game without many chances. Inter may have lost their last three games, but they have finished those games with xG figures of 2.71, 1.18 and 3.51. They were exceptionally unlucky against Fiorentina and Spezia.
Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.65 and given the mindset and approach of both sides, that definitely looks a value price here. I would also be keen to lay Juventus at 2.45 – I know everyone in the media will mention the Inter losing run, but the under-lining numbers are shouting that they are in great form – they just have to start taking their chances! On balance, I’m going to opt for the Under 2.5 goals bet; this game screams a tight and cagey affair without many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvInt
