TUESDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews REAL SOCIEDAD v ALAVES and VALENCIA v VILLARREAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL SOCIEDAD V ALAVES
6.15pm La Liga returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE after their Christmas break, and we have two interesting markets to go through on Tuesday. We kick off the evening with Real Sociedad hosting Alaves, and we have the shortest price of the day here with Real Sociedad odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.59 with Alaves 7.6 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Real Sociedad will be expected to win here, and most casual football fans might have expected them to be trading shorter than 1.59 when they clicked into the market. However, despite there being 15 points between the sides in the table there is barely anything between them looking at their performance levels. They have exceptionally similar xG figures, and Real Sociedad have been playing quite poor football this season. You have to give them massive credit for grinding out as many results as they have had, but they’re chance of staying within the top four this season is already gone. They might have had Christmas sitting in sixth, but they are already seven points away from the top four. Not only that, but I can’t see them catching Atletico Madrid or Barcelona – and Girona haven’t slowed down!
This should be an interesting game though. Real Sociedad have an average xG created of 1.35 while for Alaves it’s just under that at 1.34. At the back, Real Sociedad are conceding an average xG of 1.28 and Alaves are just marginally over that at 1.29. There really isn’t anything between the sides at all! However, the massive difference has been that Real Sociedad are over-performing at both ends of the pitch while Alaves are under-performing. Alaves have only managed an average of 0.78 which was the joint-lowest goal scoring record in La Liga at Christmas. Eventually they will start taking their chances! In terms of chances created v goals scored, Alaves are the worst performing side when it comes to converting their chances. While it’s hard to have any confidence in Alaves, the 1.59 definitely feels a little short on Sociedad. There just isn’t a gulf in class between the sides here and the performance levels would suggest a very even games. From a value point of view, I’m happy with a small lay on Sociedad at the odds. I just expected a closer game here than the betting suggests.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Real Sociedad to beat Alaves at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocAla
VALENCIA V VILLARREAL
8.30pm We finish Tuesday night with Valencia hosting Villarreal, and this is another very interesting market with very interesting under-lining numbers from both sides. Villarreal have been in massive decline since Unai Emery left. Remember at the time, he left a Villarreal side consistently in the European spots in La Liga and went to Aston Villa who were close to the relegation battle in the Premier League. Now he has Aston Villa in the top four and Villarreal are sitting down in 13th in La Liga with an average xG created of just 1.12. That’s in the bottom six in terms of attacking figures, and their average xG conceded is even worse. That’s at a high of 1.75, which is the worst defensive record in La Liga this season; it’s already very disappointing that Villarreal sit down in 13th considering where they used to finish but they could actually face a relegation battle in seasons to come should they not turn this around. Their under-lining numbers are definitely relegation contender level anyway! They are the classic case of “too good to go down” so they won’t get close to the relegation battle this season, but you’d have to be taking them on in most situations. We have a reasonably open market here but Valencia are the favourites with home advantage. Valencia are 2.34 with Villarreal 3.4 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing.
Clearly Villarreal have been playing very average football this season, but the big question here is can Valencia take advantage? Valencia have four more points compared to Villarreal, but there’s some major red flags in their under-lining numbers too. Their average xG created is just 0.89 which is the second worst attacking figure in La Liga. They have grinded out results from being solid at the back; their average xG conceded is just 1.27 which is in the top four figures at the back. However, this has clearly come at a cost of chances created. They come up against the worst side at the back in La Liga here though so they will surely get chances, away from home Villarreal are conceding even more chances at an average of 1.88. You don’t win many games giving away two goals! I’m going to keep stakes reasonably limited because of the Valencia attacking stat, but this Villarreal side are there for the taking and at 2.34 the home win is worth having a small investment on.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Valencia to beat Villarreal at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValVll
