TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v ALAVES and GIRONA v VILLARREAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V ALAVES
8.30pm We have midweek La Liga action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week as we close in on the final games of the season. We have two cracking fixtures to go through, and we start with Real Madrid hosting Alaves. We had some glorious scenes this weekend if you’re a Real Madrid fan as they had their title winning parade on Sunday. Carlo Ancelotti was dancing with the players, Jude Bellingham spoke excellent Spanish to the crowd – it had a feel good factor that puts them in an excellent spot heading into the Champions League Final in a couple of weeks. With the La Liga title in the bag, you have to wonder what the motivation levels will be for their remaining games and the most important thing from a trading point of view will be the team news here. You’d have to expect some changes to the best starting XI – for example nobody with a knock or anything like that is going to be risked. Another thing to think about when trading is we can start to expect some early subs – if Bellingham starts you will likely see him come off at 60 minutes for example.
With all that being said, Real Madrid still come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.29 with Alaves 12.0 and the draw is 6.4 at the time of writing. Alaves sit in the mid-table, and they will be absolutely delighted with that spot considering they came up from the Segunda playoffs this season. There are some red flags in their under-lining numbers however. Their average xG created is 1.17 which is quite poor, and they’ve really struggled to score goals this season because they aren’t even taking that low level of chances – they are scoring less than a goal a game. They are over-performing at the back too; their average xG conceded of 1.34 isn’t too bad but they are only actually conceding an average of 1.14. If results went more in-line with performances, they could be close to a relegation battle next season. I’m keen to keep stakes low here because of the Real Madrid situation, but they are going to go all-out attack and not worry about the result in my opinion. I expect plenty of goals here, and Real can cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.87.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Alaves at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaAla
GIRONA V VILLARREAL
9pm Next we have a very interesting market as Girona host Villarreal. Girona will be kicking themselves dropping points at the weekend against Alaves after going second in their previous game with a win over Barcelona. The key element of those results might have been home advantage – there has been a huge difference in the performance levels of Girona at home and away this season. You have to give them huge credit for getting as many results as they have done away from home this season, their under-lining numbers show that they are conceding more than they are creating away from home. Their average xG conceded away is 1.59 which is very high too, especially for a top four side. They have only won once in their last seven away games, but it’s been a different story at home. They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.94 with Villarreal 3.85 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. It’s no surprise to see Girona as the odds on favourites – Villarreal have really struggled since Unai Emery left for Aston Villa. At the time, it looked like a strange decision but just look at the situation now!
Aston Villa will very likely taste Champions League football next season and Villarreal are going to miss out on Europe. When Emery left for Villa, they weren’t far away from a relegation battle and Villarreal were a very solid Europa League side. Now Villarreal have turned into a mid-table side, and they’ve really struggled at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is mid-table level but they have the worst defensive figure in La Liga this season. Not only that, but they are actually conceding a little bit over that too. Girona have been top notch at home this season, they’ve created a lot and they’ve scored a lot of goals too. With Villarreal leaking so many chances, the 1.94 on the home win here looks cracking value to finish Tuesday night. I actually feel we’re getting so much value here that it’s worth a five star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Girona to beat Villarreal at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirVil
