TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MALLORCA v SEVILLA and RAYO VALLECANO v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MALLORCA V SEVILLA
6pm We have midweek action from Europe this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with a full fixture list from La Liga. The season feels like it’s only started – indeed we’ve only had two matchdays – and we’re heading into the first International break very soon. It’s not surprise to a see midweek round of fixtures to be honest. We kick off the evening with Mallorca hosting Sevilla. We have a reasonably open betting heat here, but Mallorca do come into the game as favourites with home advantage. Mallorca are trading 2.38 with Sevilla 3.65 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. Both sides have had a disappointing start to the season with one point from their two games – that point for Mallorca came with a draw here against Real Madrid however; that was a complete bonus! Sevilla lost in the dying moments against Villarreal on Friday and prior to that were held 2-2 at Las Palmas. As I said in my preview of those games, Sevilla finished last season with the fifth higher average xG created in La Liga last season but at what point do we just accept they aren’t taking their chances?
They are clearly too good to be anywhere near the relegation zone, but it already feels like it’s going to be another season in the bottom half of the table. Once again I feel that the 2.38 is too short on Mallorca here just based on how Sevilla have been playing but obviously there are trust issues there. We see a similar situation with Napoli in Serie A – they had the highest average xG created last season but finished in mid-table. Mallorca deserved their 1-1 draw here against Real Madrid, but they were outplayed by Osasuna at the weekend. I would definitely lean towards a Mallorca lay just because I expect a closer game than odds of 2.38 suggest, however I need to see more results from Sevilla. Both sides have made mistakes at the back, and with Mallorca playing an open game so far I feel we’ll see goals and chances here. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.17 and I was surprised to see that at odds against. Over 2.5 goals is bigger at 2.67, but I prefer the Both Teams To Score option.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.17 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalSev
RAYO VALLECANO V BARCELONA
8.30pm Next we have Rayo Vallecano hosting Barcelona, and it’s fair to say most football fans will be expecting a routine away win here. Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.75 with Rayo Vallecano 5.1 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Barcelona have got off to a flying start with two wins from two games, while Rayo Vallecano will also be delighted with their start – four points from two games is a nice start for them. As I said at the start of the season, with all the issues off the pitch for Barcelona and Mbappe going to Real Madrid – they really needed a good start to the season and for that belief that they are in the title race. Real Madrid already dropping points definitely helps too. Rayo Vallecano were involved in the relegation battle last season, and eventually finished one spot above the bottom three in 17th. They massively under-performed in front of goals though – they were miles better than their finishing position but much like Sevilla in the game above, they didn’t take their chances. Rayo Vallecano finished last season with an average xG created of 1.41 which was the seventh best attacking figure in La Liga, but they only converted close to half of those chances for an average goals scored of 0.76 per game.
That put them down in 17th, and only Cadiz – who got relegated – scored less than them. They have to do better in front of goal this season; let alone have a chance at getting a result here! Barcelona have ticked all the right boxes so far, it’s hard to find a negative with them yet – obviously it’s early days in the season. The Rayo Vallecano performance at the weekend against Getafe was very poor though, and the 1.75 on Barcelona makes a lot of appeal here. We landed a confident bet on them the weekend, obviously we had the angle of Athletic Bilbao being poor away from home too, but it feels like the market is under-rating Barcelona at the moment. I feel the 1.75 is ten ticks too big here; I know Rayo Vallecano should have finished higher last season, but after the Getafe game I still feel they have issues up front. Barcelona can continue their winning start to the season and the 1.75 is worth a confident bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RyoBar
