COPPA ITALIA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v COMO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V COMO
8pm The Coppa Italia Quarter-Finals return on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Tuesday night! Napoli host Como in what should be an intriguing battle; Inter Milan and Atalanta won last week so we’re going to have an excellent finish to the competition. It’s no surprise that we have an open betting heat here; Napoli come into the game as the favourites at 2.56 with Como 3.2 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Como have been having an incredible season – it will be fascinating to see can they beat Napoli in their own back yard.
What an absolutely wonderful job Cesc Fabregas has done with such a small club – probably the best job of the season as a manager to be honest. Not only could Como actually get European football next season; they are playing so well that they deserve it. They have an average xG created of 1.63 and an average xG conceded of just 1.10! Those are the third best attacking and defensive figures in Serie A this season, which is absolutely remarkable for a side who were in Serie B two seasons ago. I saw a stat at the weekend that they have the highest possession share in Serie A this season at 60.4% and they press more intensely than anyone else in Europe’s elite leagues. All with very little resources too compared to the top sides.
The quality of their football is outstanding for a club of their size. Como have already delivered some massive results this season – Napoli haven’t exactly set the world alight this season either, so they could add this game to the list. Napoli have the seventh best attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.50. They’ve dropped from having the best attacking figure to mid-table, and you can see that’s reflected in their results, they were included in the title battle for a while but anyone looking at the under-lining numbers knew a drop off was coming and that Inter Milan would create a gap. Their average xG conceded is still impressive at 1.15 – the fourth best defensive figure in Serie A – but that’s still worse than Como!
I know we have an open betting heat, but I’d nearly have it even more open – Como a little shorter with Napoli a little longer. Como have been playing the better football this season. Napoli ahave lso been knocked out of the Champions League already this season after failing to make it through the Group stage, which was quite embarrassing for a club of their size to not even finish in the top 24, which is “easy” given the format. This is a much closer game than the market odds suggest in my opinion. Fabregas has built a side that can control games and frustrate opponents with their possession-based style; I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very cagey game too. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.71 which is a very appealing bet. I couldn’t put anyone off the Napoli lay, but I do feel the way this game sets up the Under 2.5 goals bet offers a little more value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CINaCo
