BUNDESLIGA TUESDAY: The Ultra previews ST PAULI v RB LEIPZIG with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ST PAULI v RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm With all the Champions League games this week kicking off at the same time on Wednesday, the focus on Tuesday is the Bundesliga on Betdaq Betting Exchange! St Pauli host RB Leipzig in what should be an interesting betting heat. This is a massive game for both sides for totally different reasons – St Pauli are fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table while RB Leipzig are trying to keep themselves in the mix for a top four fnish. St Pauli are sitting in the relegation zone, and they desperately need to start picking up points because they are close to getting a little adrift.
There’s an obviously gulf in class between the sides, but Leipzig haven’t exactly been reliable this season so they aren’t red-hot favourites. RB Leipzig are the favourites at 1.91 with St Pauli 4.4 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. While St Pauli have shown some fight recently with a few draws, their underlying numbers make for grim reading. When you look at the xG figures, St Pauli have the worst attacking figure in the entire Bundesliga – an average xG created of just 1.21. It gets even worse when you look at the other side of the pitch too. Their average xG conceded is 1.72 which is in the bottom three defensive figures in the league.
RB Leipzig are been conceding too many chances this season, but they’ve been playing at a completely different level compared to St Pauli and I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.91 when I clicked into the market. They have an average xG created of 1.76 which is the third best attacking figure in the Bundesliga. The positive from a St Pauli point of view is that they haven’t been too bad at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.37, which is actually the joint-fourth best defensive figure in the Bundesliga – it’s a very high scoring league with plenty of open games! Obviously St Pauli will be scrapping for every point at home, and we know they are solid at the back but I still feel the 1.91 is too big on Leipzig.
The problem for St Pauli has been in attack, which does put me off the goals market to be honest. If you’re backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 you’re expecting Leipzig to have to do most of the work there. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but it’s hard to see past Leipzig at 1.91 as the best value option – St Pauli are there for the taking and while Leipzig haven’t been the most reliable this season, the 1.91 is worth taking.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win RB Leipzig to beat St Pauli at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DBStRb
