WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v HOFFENHEIM and INTER MILAN v BOLOGNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm We have more top class action from Europe this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Bayern Munich and Inter Milan both in action on Wednesday night. I’m sure the home double will be a popular bet! We kick off the night in the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich host Hoffenheim. It’s fair to say most football fans will be fully expecting a comfortable home win here, and you won’t see many prices lower than the Bayern win this week! Bayern are trading as short as 1.15 with Hoffenheim 21.0 and the draw is 11.5 at the time of writing. A quick look at the Bundesliga table would make you assume this is a formality, but Hoffenheim have been playing better than their results – it’s still very difficult to see anything bar a Bayern win, but Hoffenheim shouldn’t be so close to the relegation battle. They are just one point away from the relegation playoff spot, which seems to be the worst outcome given the bottom two have been so poor this season. Hoffenheim have only managed three wins this season, but they have the fifth best attacking figure in the league! What’s gone wrong then?
They are under-performing up front and at the back. They aren’t taking their chances, but they have also been extremely sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded is a mid-table figure – but they are not far away from conceding two goals per game. Bringing a record like that to Bayern away is always a recipe for disaster. With Hoffenheim leaking so many goals this season, this game is probably about how many goals Bayern can score rather than will they win – with the home side trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. The market is expecting goals – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.29 but it’s also expecting Bayern to do most of the work as Both Teams To Score is 1.99. I’m going to keep stakes small here because Hoffenheim have been really struggling to get results, but they are creating enough to score here at some stage. I know they aren’t taking their chances, but they still have the fifth best attacking figure – BTTS is worth a small investment. You have the added possibility of Bayern getting a little relaxed at the back if they are three or four in front too.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayHfn
INTER MILAN V BOLOGNA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Wednesday night from Europe as Inter Milan host Bologna. This should be a good game – Bologna had a great season last season but they did over-perform. They have slipped down the table a little, but that wasn’t unexpected and they still have an outside chance at getting back in Europe. Inter Milan are four points behind Napoli coming into the midweek round of fixtures, but they do have two games in hand now after their trip to Saudi Arabia. Inter lost out to AC Milan in the Italian Super Cup Final, but they returned to winning ways at the weekend – they have now put together six straight wins in Serie A – they’re going to be hard to stop in the title race! Inter come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.48 with Bologna 8.0 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. Ironically from a Bologna point of view this season, they are creating more and are higher up the xG table but their lower in the Serie A table! They have improved their average xG created; they have the fifth best attacking figure compared to mid-table last season.
They might not have the talent of Inter Milan, but their performances levels aren’t miles away. Inter have an average xG created of 1.6 compared to Bologna at 1.44, and they are both in the top four at the back too. Inter have an average xG conceded of 0.96 compared to Bologna at 1.05. It’s clear to see that Inter are the better side, but the figures wouldn’t make you want to rush into back the home win at 1.48. That’s actually a little short in my opinion; I feel Inter will have to work harder than those odds suggest. With both sides so solid at the back, Under 2.5 goals is another option at 2.14 – I was actually surprised to see this trading odds against given the record at the back from either side. Bologna have been a little sloppy at the back, conceding over their xG figure but I feel at 2.14 Unders is worth a small investment in what should be a tight game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Inter have to grind out a 1-0 win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntBol
