CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s Knockout Round games with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
Knockout Round
8pm It’s another fascinating night from the Champions League Knockout Round on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We only have one red-hot favourite as Atalanta host Dortmund, Juventus host Galatasaray, PSG host Monaco and Real Madrid host Benfica. There is unfinished business in all four ties – Galatasaray have the biggest lead but Juventus went into that tie as the favourites to progress and now they have home advantage. They are massively up against it though 5-2 down after the first leg. PSG are the shortest price of the night; they are trading 1.29 to beat Monaco with home advantage.
We start the evening with Atalanta hosting Dortmund in the early kick off. The Italians have a mountain to climb after the first leg didn’t go to plan in Germany last Tuesday. Dortmund took a deserved 2-0 lead, and now Atalanta have work to do. There have been very positive domestic signs though; Atalanta have an average xG created of 1.6 which is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A but they have really struggled to convert their chances. It seems like they have turned the corner in front of goal recently though – they’ve only lost once in twelve Serie A games and that was 1-0 against Inter Milan. They also recorded a massive 2-1 win over Napoli at the weekend. Dortmund did very well in the first leg – they were deliberately targeting the spaces behind Atalanta’s man-marking system with clever off-the-ball runs, and it worked a treat. There’s only 0.01 between them on attacking figure with Dortmund’s average xG created 1.61 in the Bundesliga this season.
With home advantage, Atalanta come into the game as the favourites at 2.18 with Dortmund 3.35 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Atalanta haven’t scored in their last two European games and they need three goals to go through without extra time – that feels like a very big ask. Given they have to chase the game from the start, I can see this being very open – Dortmund like to play an open game, as most German sides – I feel we’ll see goals here, and Over 2.5 goals looks a nice start to the evening at 1.78. This could be the most entertaining game on Wednesday!
We have three games kicking off at 8pm, and we have three odds on home favourites. As I said above, the shortest price of the night is PSG against Monaco. The first leg was one of the most enthralling games last week, but now that PSG have home advantage it’s hard to see past a home win. Monaco took a 2-0 lead inside 20 minutes through two Folarin Balogun goals, only for PSG to stage a remarkable comeback – it feels like that was Monaco’s chance gone. PSG went back top of Ligue 1 at the weekend too; the market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading short at 1.35 and to be honest, I don’t see much value in this game.
Another favourite that should get the job done is Real Madrid at home to Benfica. Jose Mourinho returns to the the Santiago Bernabéu which is always going to grab headlines and while there might be a lot of drama off the pitch here given what happened in the first leg, there’s a massive gulf in class between the sides. Real Madrid are trading 1.49 with Benfica 7.0 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. The first leg in Lisbon was a memorable occasion for all the wrong reasons as well as the right ones – Viniícius Jr scored an outrageous goal and what followed nearly derailed the evening entirely. After celebrating in front of the Benfica fans, the Brazilian immediately confronted the referee and accused Galatasaray’s Gianluca Prestianni of racially abusing him – the match was stopped for nearly ten minutes under UEFA’s anti racism protocol while Vini sat in the Madrid dugout. The game eventually resumed but ugly scenes continued in the closing stages as objects were thrown from the stands. Jose Mourinho added fuel to the fire with his post match comments suggesting Vini had provoked the reaction with his celebration, which clearly didn’t help. It will be interesting to see how the home fans treat Mourinho here. He is a club legend.
This is another rematch from the league phase where Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 in a quite extraordinary game – goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a header in the 98th minute to seal an unbelievable win, but Benfica had home advantage that time. It’s hard to see past Madrid with home advantage here; they did drop points at the weekend in La Liga but I felt they would be shorter than 1.49 here. I do feel that’s a shade of value – a bet for small stakes but a little big to ignore.
We end the evening in Italy with Juventus hosting Galatasaray, and what a challenge Juventus face here – they were absolutely battered in Istanbul last week and find themselves 5-2 down from the first leg. It was a quite extraordinary result; Galatasaray hit four goals in the second half when Juventus seemingly collapsed. They have been playing superb football in Serie A this season but they haven’t been getting results – they have an average xG created of 1.9 which is a very impressive figure and the second best in Serie A behind Inter Milan – but another loss at the weekend meant they are still outside the top four.
Juventus need three goals to level the aggregate score and it’s hard to see Galatasaray making this game open. They will be aiming to make it as boring as possible. Juventus come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.54 with Galatasaray 5.9 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. Juventus have been clearly playing excellent football, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.54 to be honest. If Juventus go ahead early, the tie could genuinely come alive, but one Galatasaray breakaway goal effectively kills it for the home side. Over 2.5 goals looks a better option at 1.49 compared to the Juventus win, but I do feel there are better options this evening.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals Atalanta v Dortmund at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Benfica at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CL2026
