CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAST 16
It’s a huge Wednesday night of Champions League action on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Once again, we have something for everyone tonight – very competitive ties, open markets, hot favourites and effectively dead-rubbers with the tie over. Bayern Munich have a 6-1 lead over Atalanta, while Atletico Madrid lead Spurs 5-2; those ties look in the bag. Then we have Barcelona hosting Newcastle at 1-1 and Liverpool 1-0 down against Galatasaray – that’s probably the most interesting fixture of the evening, but you’d still have to fancy Liverpool to progress with home advantage.
We kick things off with the early kick off as Barcelona Newcastle at Camp Nou. Harvey Barnes fired Newcastle in front at St James’ Park last Tuesday only for Lamine Yamal to convert a stoppage time penalty with the very last kick of the game to earn Barcelona a 1-1 draw – a result that was harsh on Eddie Howe’s side who had by far the better of the second half. I said in my preview of that game, that Newcastle probably needed to take a lead here – they don’t quite have that position but they have every right to believe here. As you would expect, Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Newcastle 5.6 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Most people believed Newcastle outplayed Barcelona for long stretches of the first leg; but this will be a different story now we’re in Barcelona.
Newcastle had a massive win at the weekend too, 1-0 away to Chelsea – they have been playing good football all season without getting results. At the same time, I wouldn’t be rushing to lay Barcelona here at 1.6; currently top of La Liga and in superb domestic form – an average xG created of 2.21 is seriously impressive. Not only that, but an average xG conceded of just 1.07 is the best defensive figure in La Liga too. A win here would be one of the great Champions League nights in Newcastle’s history, but I just don’t see it. I feel Barcelona are the right price here at 1.6 and I’m happy to stay out of this market.
We have three games kicking off at 8pm; as I said above, Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid already have two feet in the Quarter-Finals. The first leg between Atletico Madrid and Spurs was shaped by a catastrophic error-strewn display from Antonin Kinsky, who was hooked after just 17 minutes; even Spurs haters would have thought that was hard to watch. It was a disastrous night for Igor Tudor; it was classic Spurs you might say. They did manage a “huge” draw at the weekend at Anfield, a massive point in the relegation battle. But it’s hardly believable we’re talking about “massive points” in a relegation battle for Spurs!
Simeone will set Atletico up to be compact and dangerous on the counter, and they have players like Alvarez and Griezmann who can punish any mistakes. It’s hard to have a strong opinion on goals here given Atletico will want to make the game as boring as possible. It’s actually no surprise that we have the most open market of the week – Atletico Madrid are marginal favourites at 2.64 with Spurs 2.68 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. This is definitely a game for reasonably small stakes given the situation, but Spurs have been so poor this season, the 2.64 on Atletico looks worth backing.
Bayern Munich v Atalanta is effectively over. Bayern produced one of the performances of the Champions League season so far last Tuesday, dismantling Atalanta 6-1 in Bergamo. Bayern come into the game as the 1.38 favourites with Atalanta 8.8 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. I said coming into this tie that Bayern have the luxury of resting their players in domestic games given the Bundesliga title is in the bag – what about the Bayern being able to rest several key players with a huge aggregate lead! I doubt they will do that, and the 1.38 is a price for an Acca more than a straight bet. Bayern games are always entertaining, and the market is expecting goals too given Over 2.5 goals is one tick shorter! I’m happy to stay out of this game to be honest – nothing jumps out as value.
We finish Wednesday night with the biggest tie of the night as Liverpool host Galatasaray. Obviously with home advantage, you’d expect Liverpool to win here but Galatasaray won 1-0 in Istanbul last Tuesday – Mario Lemina’s diving header from a Victor Osimhen corner flick-on after just seven minutes was enough to separate the sides. Liverpool have ben fluffing their lines pretty much all season – they threw away the game here at the weekend against Spurs at the death too. It’s still no surprise that Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.31 with Galatasaray 10.5 and the draw is 6.8 at the time of writing. I know there’s a gulf in class between the sides here, but that 1.31 on Liverpool looks very short.
Anfield on a European night is one of the most intimidating atmospheres in world football; obviously Galatasaray are used to intimidating atmospheres though! Galatasaray have a woeful away record in European competition outside of Turkey – it’s hard to see past the home side here, but from a betting point of view the 1.31 just feels far too short given how sloppy Liverpool have been this season. I was a little surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.37 too – Galatasaray have a lead to defend and I can’t see them wanting an open game here. They will start very negative anyway, and see how that works out. Once again here, nothing jumps off the page as massive value, but I do like a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 3.6. Galatasaray can frustrate Liverpool here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Tottenham at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
One point win Under 2.5 goals Liverpool v Galatasaray at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CL2026
