CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s Champions League matches between RB LEIPZIG v CELTIC, CHELSEA v AC MILAN and MANCHESTER CITY v COPENHAGEN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and don’t forget to check out FACTMAN on the games too!
RB LEIPZIG V CELTIC
5.45pm The Champions League rolls on, and we have another big night of action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday. All eyes will be on Chelsea v AC Milan later as the highlight fixture, but we start the evening early in Group F as RB Leipzig host Celtic. RB Leipzig have started the season terribly – they are behind in the Bundesliga, and they sit bottom of this Group with two losses from their opening two games. I remarked in my preview of Tuesday’s games that these back-to-back fixtures were an excellent chance for sides to really take a jump forward in the Groups, and RB Leipzig must do that. This is a must win game for them – Real Madrid will win this Group, and RB Leipzig kick this game off four points behind Shakhtar Donetsk who beat them 4-1 in early September. That was a big shock as RB Leipzig had home advantage and would have started that game sub 1.3 to win. I know that there is a huge gulf in class between the sides – we have already saw how much the Scottish sides have struggled early on in the Champions League – but at the moment RB Leipzig aren’t a side you’d want to be confident on. They will very likely get the job done here, but you wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.59.
Obviously Celtic play their football at a much lower level than RB Leipzig, but there must be a huge difference in confidence levels here. Celtic top the table in Scotland after beating Rangers in the Old Firm Derby not long ago, while RB Leipzig sit in mid-table in the Bundesliga. After eight games they only sit in 11th with 11 points. While there is “only” four points behind the top four at the moment, there are a lot of sides between them and fourth – I know they started slowly and ended up getting a Champions League spot last season but it seems they have a lot more work to do this year. At the moment I would suggest they might miss out on that top four. Their sole aim has to be winning here though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Celtic tried to grind out a draw here. They will be as negative as possible in my opinion, hoping that they stand a chance of winning at Celtic Park next week. The worry here is RB Leipzig have been conceding goals for fun all season, and perhaps it’s foolish to favour Under 2.5 goals, but at odds of 2.4 it’s worth a small investment for me. Celtic are going to really try to close down this game and make it as boring as possible, and RB Leipzig haven’t exactly been creating chances for fun this season.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblCel
Check FACTMAN for our match stats!
CHELSEA V AC MILAN
8pm Next we move to Group E as Chelsea host AC Milan. This is no doubt the highlight fixture of the evening between two top sides, however we do have a fascinating situation in the Group. You would think that after losing to Dinamo Zagreb and then only drawing with Red Bull Salzburg that Chelsea would be in major trouble in this Group; however given the other results a win here would likely see them top the Group after Inter Milan have also dropped points – they drew 1-1 away to Red Bull Salzburg. When this draw came out, you would have assumed these two fixtures would decide who tops the Group – that’s probably still the case, but it has been thrown wide open by the results in September! Chelsea have already been through a huge amount in this competitions, they are onto their second manager! I have to say I have been a little underwhelmed by their performances since Graham Potter started. With the sacking of Tuchel, it’s always an option that he lost the dressing room and we just didn’t know about it or see the signs – since Tuchel was sacked Chelsea have created xG figures of 1.46 and 1.34. Not a huge bounce based off what they were creating earlier, and I would even go as far to say that Potter hasn’t had an major impact yet. It’s early days though, so let’s wait and see. My early opinion is that how do you replace Tuchel, and if there wasn’t any major issues in the dressing room he should have been given time to sort out the results. It seems the players haven’t “upped their game” since he left anyway based off the two games we have seen.
This should be a cracking fixture, and I am fascinated to see who comes out on top. AC Milan will be an excellent challenge for Chelsea, and we should get a good idea where they stand after this game. I have to say I wasn’t expecting to see Chelsea odds on. AC Milan are a little off the pace in Serie A as they are three points behind Napoli at the moment – they lost 2-1 to Napoli prior to the International break – however everyone has dropped points at some stage in Italy this season, and it looks like it’s going to be a very entertaining title race. AC Milan were actually a little unlucky to lose to Napoli – they finished the game with an xG of 2.40 and only conceded 1.14. In general, AC Milan have been performing at a better standard than Chelsea – they have been quite consistent with their xG figures recently of 2.69, 2.40, 2.37 and 2.33. They are definitely creating more than Chelsea at the moment, and I feel the best option here is a Chelsea lay at 1.72 – I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest. As I said, AC Milan have been playing the better football this season, and they can get a result here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat AC Milan at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheMil
Check FACTMAN for our match stats!
MANCHESTER CITY V COPENHAGEN
8pm Lastly we finish the evening with the shortest price of Wednesday’s games with Manchester City hosting Copenhagen. The market can’t see past a comfortable home win here with Manchester City trading as short as 1.08 at the time of writing. That’s the shortest price of the week – joint with Bayern Munich who were the same price to beat Pizen. To be honest, who can argue with the prices here. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides, and City have been banging in goals for fun this season. While you aren’t going lump on 1.08, it is a price to put in any Betdaq Multiple this evening given it’s highly likely to be a one way traffic win for the home side here. I would view this fixture as ‘how many goals will City score?’ rather than will they win. With City trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value with the best options in the Over/Under markets and of course the Handicap markets. City made all the headlines at the weekend in the Premier League when comfortably beating Manchester United 6-3 on Sunday afternoon – they were 4-0 up by half-time, and although United haven’t been good in recent years, that’s still a very eye-catching score line. I read a tweet on Sunday afternoon saying “it’s unfair to have Erling Haaland in this City team” – that’s basically the truth! He is going to break so many goal scoring records with City.
It’s probably a bad sign for Copenhagen that they shipped three goals away to Dortmund earlier in the Champions League. They did manage to grind out a 0-0 draw with home advantage against Sevilla, but we all know that Sevilla have started the season very poorly in La Liga and they are already way behind – that was a very boring game without many chances, and I don’t see much chance of Copenhagen keeping a clean sheet here! So, the question is how many goals for City then. While Copenhagen topped the Danish Superliga last season to get to the Champions League, they haven’t been playing as well this season. After 11 games they sit in sixth which is mid-table in Denmark. The top six and bottom six break off to decide the title and relegation, but Copenhagen have already nearly conceded as many as they have scored in Denmark. With that in mind, I can only see City goals here. How does anyone stop Haaland? I can’t see Copenhagen doing it, and Any Other Home Win (Man City to score four or more and win) looks good value at 1.98 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Any Other Home Win at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciCop
Check FACTMAN for our match stats!
