WEDNESDAY’S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s last 16 games between DORTMUND v CHELSEA and CLUB BRUGGE v BENFICA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V CHELSEA
8pm The Champions League continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday as Dortmund host Chelsea and Club Brugge host Benfica. We also have a huge top of the table clash in the Premier League between Arsenal and Manchester City, so it’s a big night for the London clubs. This is a huge game for Chelsea, who are having a very poor season in the Premier League. Graham Potter needs something to go his way, and if Chelsea get dumped out of the Champions League on top of sitting mid-table in the Premier League, questions are going to be asked. We all know the Chelsea ownership is trigger happy, and Potter must be feeling the pressure. The good news for Chelsea fans is that their performance level has definitely improved in recent weeks – they have recorded xG figures of 2.74, 2.06, 1.69, 1.30 and 1.24 in their last five games. They have been unlucky to only win once in that run, and they also had to play Liverpool away. Their worst performance from those five games was actually the 1-1 draw at the weekend away to West Ham – that game will mainly be remembered for the fan fight video before the game that went viral! Chelsea have their hands full here with Dortmund, who have won their last four games – I think if you offered Chelsea a draw here they would take it without kicking a ball.
We have an open betting heat, with Dortmund currently favourites at 2.48, Chelsea are 3.15 and the draw is 3.45. You could say that Dortmund haven’t been having a fantastic season, but at the same time they are only three points behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. They aren’t scoring as many goals, but that’s to be expected without Haaland now and their average xG created is still very impressive at 1.9. It’s a lot better than Chelsea’s which is only 1.4 in the Premier League, and they are also conceding the same figure too! Obviously there is a gulf in class between the Bundesliga and the Premier League, but you couldn’t have asked for Dortmund to come into this fixture in better form. They are a tempting bet at 2.48 given how poor Chelsea have been this season – their performance against West Ham at the weekend was lacklustre and that throws doubt on their previous improvement. I feel Dortmund will win the game, but Over 2.5 goals is also a tempting bet at 1.97 – Dortmund don’t usually sit back, and Chelsea have been conceding so many chances it’s hard to see a cagey game here. However, on balance I prefer the Dortmund bet at 2.48 – Chelsea have just been average this season, and Dortmund can outscore them.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Dortmund to beat Chelsea at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorChe
CLUB BRUGGE V BENFICA
8pm Next we have Club Brugges hosting Benfica, and it’s fair to say that this is the least glamorous tie of the Last 16! Put it this way, whoever gets the winner of this tie in the Quarter Finals will be absolutely delighted with the draw. Let’s take absolutely nothing away from these two sides because they were both excellent in the Group stage, you’d just expect them to be beaten by the better sides when we get to the knockout stage. That being said, they have already knocked out some big clubs – Club Brugge finished ahead of Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid in their Group while Benfica topped a Group with PSG and Juventus in it. They drew with PSG twice, and beat Juventus twice to top the Group on goal difference, a remarkable achievement. They will be expected to come through this tie, because it was a massive shock to see Club Brugge quality for this round – they benefitted from Atletico Madrid having a terrible season in the Champions League and they had some very lucky results too looking at the xG figures. They beat Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid early in the Group while conceding a higher xG figure than they created in close games with home advantage, and then managed two away draws while being outplayed. Credit to them for grinding out a result, but they picked up a 0-0 draw away to Atletico while creating an xG of 0.35 and conceding 2.91! Atletico should have taken their chances.
Benfica come into this game as the odds on favourites, and they will be hoping to follow in Porto’s footsteps here who won 4-0 in Brugge’s last home Group game. The away side are trading 1.93 at the time of writing, and I’m sure they will be a popular bet considering the level Brugge play at domestically. I would suggest that Brugge have to win this game to have any chance of going through, but they did look reasonably solid here against Leverkusen and Atletico – they conceded more chances than they created, but they weren’t played off the park. Benfica are having a great season in Portugal, five points ahead of Porto at the top of the table. They were very impressive at the Group stage, deserved a draw away to PSG and should have beaten them with home advantage. They were also very impressive away to Juventus, and scored six goals away to Maccabi Haifa. I’d expect Brugge to be very cagey here, but when you look at the under-lining numbers there’s only one winner here. Benfica are worth backing at 1.93 – it’s not a Max Bet, but a confident one to get the job done.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Benfica to beat Club Brugge at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BruBen
