WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between COPENHAGEN v MANCHESTER UNITED and ARSENAL v SEVILLA both with recommended BETDAQ bets.
COPENHAGEN V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm The Champions League continues on Wednesday, and we have a fascinating night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. Because we had the reverse fixtures two weeks ago, we have plenty of talking points as Manchester United and Arsenal are back in action. We start the evening in Group A with Copenhagen hosting Manchester United. We had huge drama and nearly also had a huge upset at Old Trafford two weeks ago as United made very heavy work of beating Copenhagen. It was a very poor and average performance, but Harry Maguire came good with a goal to give United the lead, and then Onana saved a penalty deep into stoppage time. Had that penalty gone in United would have been basically out of the Champions League, but they are still in the hunt despite being on the backfoot. As expected, Bayern Munich will top the Group – however after a shock win at Old Trafford Galatasaray sit in second with four points and United are just behind on three. You’d expect Bayern Munich to beat Galatasaray tonight so a win here would leave United in second. The problem is; they have been so poor this season it’s hard to have confidence in them getting that win!
Despite most Manchester United watching their side through their fingers or hiding behind their couches this season, United come into this game as the odds on favourites given the huge gulf in class between the sides. The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Copenhagen 4.8, Manchester United 1.8 and the draw is 4.1. United managed to win away from home at the weekend against Fulham, they went off at around 2.26 but they left it until injury time to finally score. The game was very even on xG figures and a draw would have been a fair result. United were so poor when these sides met two weeks ago it’s hard to have confidence in them here at 1.8. I definitely feel we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest. It might actually be a fantastic trade given they have been very average in the first half this season; you would have had a good trade at the weekend laying them against Fulham. I’m not going to go crazy here because of the gulf in class between the sides, but I’m very happy with a United lay at 1.8.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Copenhagen at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CopMun
ARSENAL V SEVILLA
8pm Next we move to Group B as Arsenal host Sevilla. Despite a big setback when losing to Lens on matchday two, Arsenal are still in a great position and on course to top this Group. They sit top at the moment with six points with Lens just behind them on five. Sevilla are again struggle in La Liga this season, and their chances of breaking back into the top four in Spain are gone already. They dropped points again at the weekend, and they sit just four points off the relegation zone at the moment. After a disastrous season in La Liga last season, they really saved things with the Europa League win – they are already in a position of needing to win in Europe to actually stay there. Missing out on European football would be a huge blow, and they might find it very difficult to actually break back into that top four in Spain. Last season, Sevilla were playing very average football and conceding a host of chances at the back. This season, they are actually playing great football but they just can’t get results. Their average xG created in La Liga is a very high 2.01 – the only side creating more is Real Madrid – Sevilla are even better going forward this season than Barcelona, but the results don’t show it. They have been very solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is only 1.25 which is in the top three figures in La Liga.
So, what’s going wrong for Sevilla that they’ve only won twice? They are conceding sloppy goals, but the major issue at the moment is that they aren’t taking their chances. If they were performing in line with their xG they would be blowing sides away. Arsenal were in the headlines at the weekend because of the Newcastle drama, more VAR drama and a loss. They even put out a club statement. No doubt they were unlucky, and they are still one of the best sides at the back in the Premier League this season. Their average xG conceded is just 0.85 – one of only two sides under 1.0 along with Manchester City. It’s easy to see why they are odds on to win here, and they will be a popular bet for Acca’s at 1.34. If you fancy a surprise, Sevilla are 10.5 and the draw is 6.0. I know Sevilla haven’t been getting the results this season, but I have to say the 1.34 feels very short here. Sevilla’s average xG is over 2.0 which takes a lot of good football – Arsenal’s is only 1.66 for example. I’m keeping stakes small here but I expect a closer game than the odds suggest and the 1.34 is worth a small lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Sevilla at 1.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsSev
