WEDNESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews CLUB BRUGGE v ASTON VILLA, INTER MILAN v ARSENAL and PSG v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CLUB BRUGGE V ASTON VILLA
5.45pm We have another huge night on Wednesday from the Champions League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Inter Milan v Arsenal is the highlight, but we have three fascinating markets to go through. We kick off the evening in an early kick off as Club Brugge host Aston Villa. It’s been a dream start to the Champions League for Unari Emery and his men as they sit top of the table coming into this week with three wins from three games. Undoubtedly the highlight of that run was their win against Bayern Munich, and although they should win this game on paper, as favourites there will be plenty of willing layers looking at their under-lining figures from the Premier League. Aston Villa only have an average xG created of 1.31 this season which is very low – only six clubs have created less chances in the Premier League this season! They have been grinding out wins and results in classic Unai Emery fashion, but that run came to an end at the weekend when losing 4-1 away to Spurs. Club Brugge have looked short of the Champions League standard so far; they beat Sturm Graz but they are probably the weakest side in the tournament this season.
Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.24 with Club Brugge 3.5 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. There’s going to be some big opinion on either side of the book on the Aston Villa price, and I’m on the back side. I fully accept the fact that they haven’t been creating a lot in the Premier League this season, but in my opinion the 2.24 is too big to ignore against a limited side in Club Brugge. Dortmund haven’t exactly been firing in the Bundesliga this season, but they recorded a very smooth 3-0 win here in September on matchday one. Villa have been solid at the back, their average xG conceded is only 1.24 so Both Teams Not To Score could be of interest too at 2.32. Over 2.5 goals is trading odds on at 1.85, and I’m not sure I agree with that price either – I would have Unders a little shorter in that market – I can’t see Villa opening this game up to be honest. However, it’s hard to see past a better value bet than 2.24 on the Villa win – it’s not one to go crazy about with the stakes but it’s a nice start to the evening.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Club Brugge at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CluAst
INTER MILAN V ARSENAL
8pm Next we have the highlight of the night as Inter Milan host Arsenal. This should be a cracker, it’s fixtures like this that make the Champions League special. Both sides come into the game with the same record this season – two wins and a draw from their three Champions League games leaves them both sitting around the top eight – Inter start the week in seventh and Arsenal are ninth. I’m sure goal difference will come into things with the top eight! Arsenal come into the game off the back of another Premier League loss at the weekend – they are now seven points behind Liverpool which is already quite a gap! It’s five points behind Manchester City as well, and I just don’t see them closing a gap even at this relatively early stage of the season. Arsenal fans have claimed that they have been “robbed” by decisions plenty of times this season – seemingly every time they drop points – but the reality is they are conceding more chances. Their average xG conceded this season is 1.36 compare to last season when that figure was 0.92, which was the best defensive figure in the Premier League. They are conceding more chances, and that’s getting them into trouble in games.
It was a good weekend in Italy for Inter Milan though – they recorded a routine win over Venezia and then watched Napoli lose so the gap at the top of the table is only one point now. I know I’ve already said this, but I feel from all the top leagues around Europe – Inter Milan are the most likely winners when you look at the opposition compared to the other leagues. Granted Bayern Munich are already in a very strong position in the Bundesliga! We have an exceptionally open betting heat here, and Inter are the favourites with home advantage. Inter Milan are trading 2.72 with Arsenal 3.0 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. I was actually surprised to see such an open market here – I felt Inter would be a little shorter. They are creating a good volume of chances this season and they’ve been very solid at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.07. I do expect a tight game; we have two very good sides here – however, for me the value is with an Inter win at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Inter Milan to beat Arsenal at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntArs
PSG V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We finish Wednesday night with a huge game for both sides here as PSG host Atletico Madrid. This is a huge fixture because both sides are massively on the backfoot in the Champions League this season – PSG have only managed four points with Atletico only on three. I think both sides can forget about the top eight positions here and getting straight through into the Last 16 – but Atletico are currently sitting out of the 24 that go through! Exiting at this stage would be quite embarrassing given the quality has gone down this season with the extra sides! On paper, they do have some easier fixtures coming up but you could have said that about Benfica where they lost 4-0 and then they lost 3-1 at home to Lille! PSG are ticking all their boxes in Ligue 1 as they usually do – they sit top of the table unbeaten with a six point lead already. As we all know, their acid test is always the Champions League – this year they approach it without any major stars, and it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out for them. PSG have always had dressing room issues and I feel trying things this way might actually work better for them.
You can forgive them the 2-0 loss away to Arsenal, but the 1-1 draw here with PSV was obviously disappointing. They come into this game as the odds on favourites with home advantage, and as we know Atletico tend to perform much better in front of their own fans. PSG are trading 1.75 with Atletico Madrid 5.5 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. As you would expect, PSG have very impressive figures from France – an average xG created over 2.0 and an average conceded under 1.0 – nothing surprising given the level of opposition. Atletico have been very solid at the back in La Liga, but they’ve really struggled to create chances. Their average xG created of 1.26 after twelve games is a mid-table figure. Last season they really struggled away from home and dropped most of their points on the road – that attacking figure isnt’t going to trouble PSG in Paris in my opinion, and I’m very happy to take the 1.75 on a home win. Obviously there’s a lot at stake here for both sides after a lacklustre start but away from home Atletico are there for the taking, and I’d have PSG a little under 1.7 so I’m very happy with the 1.75 on offer.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgAtl
