WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v BAYER LEVERKUSEN and PSG v LIVERPOOL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
8pm It’s a massive Wednesday night from the Champions League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have two huge fixtures right out of the top drawer. All eyes might go to PSG v Liverpool in Paris, but we start the evening with a huge clash in Germany as the top two sides meet. Bayern Munich have been well on top in the Bundesliga this season as they sit eight points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen, but this will be a fascinating tie over the two legs. Bayern Munich come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.83 with Bayer Leverkusen 4.8 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. These two sides have been by far and away the top two in the Bundesliga this season – they have the best two attacking figures and the best two defensive figures! Looking at the under-lining numbers, it’s clear that Bayern have been playing the better football – that’s reflected in the gap at the top to be honest. Bayern have an average xG created of 2.16 compared to Leverkusen at 1.85. Bayern have been exceptional at the back too; an average xG conceded of 0.78 is the best defensive figure from all of Europe’s elite leagues. Leverkusen are close to double that at 1.14, and that’s still an impressive figure.
Although we have two sides who play a very open and attacking game, the last few meetings have been very cagey. We had a 0-0 last month – Bayern were away from home, and they likely approached that with a view of keeping the gap as is. They actually finished that game with an xG of just 0.32; they were away from home but that’s an exceptionally low figure. The last three meetings have finished with Under 2.5 goals – but Overs landed in the four games previous – likely as the games are getting more important they are getting more cagey. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.18 which I feel is on the big side – obviously that is a bet for small stakes given the attacking talent both sides have. However, I do expect another reasonably cagey affair here – over two legs I can’t see either side being too open at the start. If we got an early goal, it could end up being carnage, but I do feel the Unders option is a nice value play here. I’d have that market at least 50/50!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLBaBa
PSG V LIVERPOOL
8pm We finish Wednesday night with one of the best ties of the Last 16 as PSG host Liverpool. As always with PSG, the acid test for them is always the Champions League so it will be fascinating to see how they get on here – especially with Liverpool in such good form under Arne Slot this season. We have a very open betting heat – PSG are the favourites at 2.44 with Liverpool 2.96 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Obviously PSG are running away with Ligue 1 this season – it would be a massive shock if they didn’t to be honest given the gulf in class between themselves and the rest of the league. This is the first season PSG haven’t had a massive international star, and so far it’s working out for them – they are unbeaten in Ligue 1. To be honest, PSG have always had issues in the dressing room so without a star, they might actually play better as a team, and that appears to be the case. However, as I said the Champions League is the acid test. They face an exceptionally good Liverpool side here too who have already put the Premier League to bed.
Liverpool have an average xG created of 1.88 in the Premier League this season, and they are conceding less than one goal per game on average too. PSG have a similar record at the back in Ligue 1, but they have a better attacking figure at 2.27 – that would be to be expected for the standard they play at however. I have to say I was surprised to see how big Liverpool were trading when I clicked into the market – I know PSG have home advantage and obviously this will be a tough night for Arne Slot’s men, but I’d have them shorter than 2.96. PSG beat Man City here, but that was at a time when City were really struggling, and they haven’t been themselves this season anyway – Atletico Madrid beat them here, and PSV managed a draw. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but the 2.96 on Liverpool is too big to ignore in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat PSG at 2.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLPsLi
