THE ULTRA WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews the Champions League Quarter Finals between AC MILAN v NAPOLI and REAL MADRID v CHELSEA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V NAPOLI
8pm The Champions League Quarter-Finals continue on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with another two cracking fixtures on Wednesday. We have plenty of talking points from the two games here – I’m sure Real Madrid v Chelsea will take all the headlines but we start the evening with a fascinating all Serie A clash between AC Milan and Napoli. If you’ve been following Serie A this season you’ll know that Napoli have been absolutely superb. They have barely put a foot wrong, and basically have the title won sitting 16 points clear. AC Milan, after winning the title last season for the first time in years, are locked in a battle for a top four spot. Both these sides played on Friday night as Serie A allowed them more time to prepare for this fixture, and AC Milan dropped further points with a 0-0 draw at home to Empoli. They played well and deserved to win, and actually kept the spot in the top four because Inter Milan dropped points again. Lazio and Roma are benefitting from the Milan clubs being all over the place recently. These two sides met very recently in Serie A too, with AC Milan producing a shock 4-0 win away from home. Whatever about the result, nobody saw the score line coming given the gulf in class between the sides this season – it’s hard to read too much in the Serie A games from Napoli at the moment because they are so far clear at the top.
Napoli have the luxury of focusing on the Champions League given they have such a big lead in Serie A. I’m sure they would be reasonably happy with a draw here though and get back to home advantage in the second leg. They have been superb at home all season. We have an exceptionally open market at the time of writing – Napoli come into the game as favourites trading 2.8 but there’s only ten ticks between the sides as AC Milan trade 2.9 with the draw is 3.3. While home advantage is always important, Napoli have been fantastic away from home this season as well as at home. They have a whopping 40 points from 15 away games this season – that’s 12 points clear of the side in second on the away form table, and includes a 2-1 win over AC Milan. The one thing to say however is AC Milan finished that game with a higher xG figure, and then they also managed the 4-0 win at the start of the month. Perhaps AC Milan have Napoli’s number? A fascinating clash awaits, and I feel it’s best to stay away from the match odds market here. This game screams a classic Italian cagey first leg affair without many chances; I can’t see either side wanting to open the game up. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and that looks a very nice value bet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmNap
REAL MADRID V CHELSEA
8pm Next we have the highlight of the night as Real Madrid host Chelsea. Real Madrid fans must have been watching recent events in London with glee as Chelsea re-appointed Frank Lampard. It’s only until the end of the season, but it’s a completely bizarre decision nonetheless. You have to ask the question; would Graham Potter have done a worst job than Lampard? The only reason for the change would have been Potter losing the dressing room, which considering we have had stories of players calling him Harry Potter behind his back might have been the case. The change in manager didn’t change Chelsea’s fortunes anyway because they lost again at the weekend – this time 1-0 away to Wolves, and they played bang average football too. They were creating better xG figures under Potter just not taking their chances. They desperately need a striker, and it’s hard to see them getting a result here to be honest. Real Madrid also lost at the weekend, losing 3-2 to Villarreal in La Liga. As I noted in my preview of that game though, that wasn’t a surprise given the title race is effectively over in Spain – all Real’s focus will be on the Champions League going forward plus they had a difficult but successful game midweek last week in the Copa del Rey against Barcelona – they are through to the Final in that competition now too.
Chelsea have been really poor this season results wise. Their performances under Potter were improving a lot, and to be honest they should have won a lot of their recent games. The appointment of Lampard and performance at the weekend afterwards was a real step backwards. It’s hard to see Lampard having Chelsea set up correctly to deal with a side like Real Madrid, especially away from home. Real come into the game as the odds on favourites, they are trading 1.77 at the time of writing with Chelsea 5.4 and the draw is 3.95. I have to say it’s very hard to see past the Real win here. Chelsea have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season, and Real’s average xG is a very high 2.3 in La Liga this season. Chelsea only have an average xG of 1.5 and then they are conceding close to that at 1.3. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here performance wise, and Chelsea seem in crisis at the moment too. The loss at the weekend doesn’t worry me from a Real point of view – they did finish the game with a higher xG figure but it was clear all their focus would be on this game. I have to say I expected them to be shorter than 1.77, and at the odds they are worth a Max Bet to beat an average Chelsea side.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Chelsea at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaChe
