UEFA SUPER CUP: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s UEFA Cup between CHELSEA v VILLARREAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V VILLARREAL
8pm We have our first big European clash of the season on Wednesday night as Chelsea take on Villarreal in the UEFA Super Cup. This year Windsor Park in Belfast will have the honour of hosting, but there will only be a capacity of 13,000 and they will all have to have proof of a negative PCR or lateral flow Covid19 test on entry. It’s not ideal but it’s the times we are living in! We should have a good game however, although both sides will be preparing for their seasons to start at the weekend.
We saw a relatively quiet Community Shield at Wembley at the weekend between Leicester and Man City. While the Super Cup is a better trophy to win, and more important, I would expect a fairly similar game. The Striker was on the money with under 2.5 goals, and that’s a very tempting bet for me here at around 1.75 on 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Chelsea play at 3pm on Saturday, while Villarreal have the luxury of not playing until Monday at 7pm. This might have an impact on substitutes and tactics going into the final 15 minutes when the two sides are tired given they are unlikely to be fully fit.
Villarreal actually played a pre-season friendly against Leicester last week, you can’t read too much into those games but they lost 3-2 in an open game. Chelsea have actually played more pre-season friendlies so from that point of view they could be the fitter side. They are definitely the side with more class, but as we saw in the community Shield at the weekend, these type of games are often more important to the lesser side – which is Villarreal in this case.
If I had to have a bet in the Match Odds market, I would opt for Chelsea at 1.8 or bigger. They have a better squad, could be marginally fitter based off pre-season games and are a quality side. However, I have to say I can’t see past under 2.5 goals here at 1.75. Villarreal usually try and keep the big games pretty tight, and in the whole of La Liga last season they ended with an xG of 1.6 per game – that’s pretty low given they were battling for the European spots. Chelsea only conceded an xG of 0.9 per game in the Premier League last season too, so I expect a reasonably cagey first half before things open up in the second half. Unders definitely looks the value in this one! It’s good to have European football back -we finished Euro 2020 with a 21.09 point profit and an ROI of 14% – hopefully this season goes just as well!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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