CONFERENCE LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews OLYMPIAKOS v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
🏆 OLYMPIAKOS V FIORENTINA 🏆
8pm The Europa Conference League is the starter on Wednesday night before we have the main course with the Champions League Final on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Saturday. Although when this tournament first came out most clubs looked down at it, it has defintely produced some fantastic moments. Jose Mourinho ended Roma’s wait for a major trophy and then we had some wonderful scenes as David Moyes done the same for West Ham last season. Football being the funny old game that it is, neither manager is still in charge of those clubs! Fiorentina were on the losing end of that West Ham victory, and now they get their chance for glory again as they take on Olympiakos.
We have a pretty open betting heat. Fiorentina come into the game as the favourites at 2.44 with Olympiakos 3.4 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Fiorentina have been in this tournament from the start, topping their Group unbeaten and then beating Maccabi Haifa, Viktoria Plzen and Club Brugge. Olympiakos were in the Europa League but finished third in a Group with West Ham, Freiburg and Backa Topola – they came in at the knockout round, which has been a good addition to Europe, to beat Ferencvarosi, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Fenerbahce and Aston Villa. On paper, Olympiakos have definitely had the tougher journey here.
Obviously we know Fiorentina well because Serie A is an elite European league. They still have one fixture left because of the way Europa League Final fell with Atalanta, but their under-lining numbers are very good. Their average xG created is 1.57 which is the fifth best attacking figure in Serie A while their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the second best defensive figure. They actually should be higher than mid-table this season, and should definitely have a spot in Europe but the pressure is on here in that regard as eighth in Serie A won’t get them any European football.
It’s tough to judge Olympiakos on their domestic form; they finished third this season behind PAOK and AEK Athens. They have impressive xG figures, but that’s not a surprise given the level of most clubs outside the top Greek clubs. Nevertheless, their average xG created is 1.85 and their average conceded is 0.95. In this competition, they have created less with an average of 1.69 and conceded more with an average xG conceded of 1.39. While the score line was exceptionally away to Aston Villa, they really just had a day when nothing went wrong. They conceded a higher xG figure than they created, and only had 34% possession. In the second leg they only had 26% possession but remarkably won 2-0!
You obviously have to give massive credit to Olympiakos for grinding out as many results as they have done this season, but on paper Fiorentina look a much better side and the 2.44 is a very appealing price here. I would have them shorter. The only other bet to consider is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 – this game absolutely screams a very tight affair without many chances. Both sides concede very little chances domestically, and you just know we’re going to have a cagey start too. I couldn’t put anyone off the Fiorentina win at 2.44 or Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 – however I’m going to take a chance on a big price here. I do feel we will have a very cagey game without many chances, and a 0-0 Correct Score looks a nice bet for a small stake at around the 10.0 mark.
The Ultra Says:
One point win 0-0 Correct Score at 10.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OlyFio
