NATIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINAL: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s first semi-final between ITALY v SPAIN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

ITALY V SPAIN

7.45pm The International break starts with a bang this week as we have the Nations League Semi-Finals and Final later in the week. We start on Wednesday night with Italy taking on Spain in Milan, before Belgium face France in Turin tomorrow. It’s actually been quite a while since we saw Nations League football, and perhaps that’s something they can work on going forward to bring the Finals closer to the end of the Group stage. Nevertheless, this promises to be a high quality game of football and we have a reasonably open market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You have to go back nearly a year for the Group stages, but Italy topped Group A1 which had Netherlands, Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina in it which looked a pretty weak Group for a Group A – especially considering how poor Poland have been recently, while Spain topped Group A4 which had Germany, Switzerland and Ukraine in it. These two also met in Euro 2020 during the summer with Italy winning on penalties on the way to lifting the trophy.

These were the top two sides for a number of years in Europe but they have both had to go through periods of change as their stars got older. Italy suffered a lot more than Spain, even missing major tournaments but with a win at Euro 2020 they have stormed back onto the scene, and a follow up win in the Nations League would cap a brilliant year for them. I’m not sure how much weight world football puts on the Nations League trophy but anyway! When Italy beat Spain on penalties at Euro 2020, Spain were a little unlucky. That was Italy’s worst performance of the tournament – they only created an xG of 0.78 and conceded 1.74. Compare that to their xG figures of 2.03, 2.5, 2.26, 2.24, 2.23 and 2.69 in their other games.

There’s no doubt that we’re going to have another close game here, and although we do have a reasonably open market I still feel Italy are too short here at 2.31. Italy are a top side, but you have to say Spain gave them a huge amount of issues in their clash at Euro 2020 and Spain have been in excellent form too. We tend to always have cagey games when the top sides meet and I’d expect nothing less here – I can see going into half-time goalless and then the game can open up in the second half. The draw is pretty tempting, but the Italy lay stands out as the value here.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Italy to beat Spain at 2.31 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNLSem1