WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL BETIS v BARCELONA and MONTPELLIER v PSG both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL BETIS V BARCELONA
8pm We have top class action around Europe on Wednesday with Barcelona and PSG both in action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We might have a full fixture list in Ligue 1, but we only have one fixture in La Liga and that’s where we start. It was another great weekend for Barcelona at the top of the table – with Real Madrid dropping points again Barcelona extended their lead to five points. The remarkable thing about Barcelona increasing their lead in the last week or two is that they have been playing their worst football of the season. They resumed their season with a 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol, but ironically that has been their best performance since the World Cup. Since then they have won three games 1-0 against Atletico Madrid, Getafe and Girona but all three times they have conceded a higher xG than they created. Their three xG figures were 1.09, 0.76 and 0.86. They conceded an xG of close to double what they created against Atletico Madrid, but only creating 0.76 and 0.86 against the likes of Getafe and Girona is probably a bigger worry! Not only that, but they also conceded an xG of 1.77 against Getafe with home advantage too.
Despite their poor performances, you have to give Barcelona credit for grinding out results. It’s what Champions do after all isn’t it? Win when things aren’t going well or you’re not at your best. They come into this game trading odds on, but I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.7. Real Betis had a great season last time, and with Sevilla struggling this season they would have really fancied their chances at getting a top four spot but they have been a little off the pace. They went into the World Cup having dropped a few points, and they did start slowly after the World Cup too – their first three xG figures were 0.43, 0.84 and 0.93. However, they did put in their best performance with a 1-0 win over Getafe at the weekend, and they could have scored more too. Basically we have two sides here who haven’t really fired since the World Cup, and while I would definitely lean towards the Barcelona lay because Real Betis look far more comfortable with home advantage, Under 2.5 goals looks a great option at 2.08. With Barcelona struggling to create chances and Real Betis expected to sit back a little, I can see a very cagey game here and I expected to see Unders odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BtsBar
MONTPELLIER V PSG
8pm We move to Ligue 1 to finish the evening! We have a very busy evening with a full fixture list, but Montpellier v PSG looks the pick of the games – of course any game PSG are involved in is going to be the highlight given their front three! PSG come into this fixture trading as one of the shortest prices around Europe tonight – they are currently 1.35 at the time of writing but they haven’t been blowing sides away. Indeed, they have only won once in their last four Ligue 1 games and it’s not like they have been unlucky either. They finished with a marginally higher xG figure in the 1-1 draw with Reims at the weekend, but Rennes outplayed them and Lens were the better side with the higher xG figure when they won 3-1 too. I wouldn’t be rushing to back PSG at 1.35 given they’ve lost their last two away games, but at the same time we have to remember that there’s a huge gulf in class between PSG and basically anyone else in the French league. It looked like PSG were running away with the title, but the gap has now closed to three points so things could get interesting. From that point of view, that might focus minds in the PSG dressing room and it could also have been a smaller lead because Lens also dropped points at the weekend!
While I wouldn’t recommend backing the 1.35 on PSG, it is hard to see past them winning here. Montpellier are sitting down in 14th, only five points away from the bottom four. They will very likely be safe, but that’s a little too close for comfort! They broke their losing run of three games with a win against Auxerre at the weekend, but they were lucky to win that game as they conceded an xG of over just double what they created. Their stats are pretty poor, as you would expect for a side sitting where they are in the table and with an average xG of only 1.1 they could easily struggle to score against PSG here. I am tempted by Under 2.5 goals because I can see PSG having to grind out a win here, but Both Teams Not To Score looks value at 2.11. Montpellier don’t offer much going forward, and I’d expect PSG to have all the ball here – I don’t expect this to be the most entertaining game and we could see PSG grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MntPsg
