CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews the Last 16 stage with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAST 16
We have a huge Wednesday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange as the Champions League Last 16 first legs continue! We have four absolutely cracking fixtures – Bayer Leverkusen host Arsenal, Bodo/Glimt host Sporting Lisbon, PSG host Chelsea and Real Madrid host Manchester City. It’s a massive night for Premier League fans involved in three huge games too; massive nights away from home for Arsenal, Chelsea and City. We kick off the evening in Germany, with Arsenal traveling to take on Bayer Leverkusen in the early kick off. Compared to the Chelsea and Man City fixture; this is the easiest tie for an English club! With Bayer Leverkusen selling their best players and Xabi Alonso moving on, it’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Bayer Leverkusen 6.4 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing.
Arsenal come into this game in a very good spot – they have been under immense pressure in the Premier League title race, but they have fought off Pep Guardiola’s Man City for the time being. City dropped two massive points at home last week against Nottingham Forest, and Arsenal have a little gap again. They have been the best side in England by some distance this season – their average xG conceded of 0.91 is the best defensive figure in Europe this season. To have that figure in a league as competitive as the Premier League is exceptionally impressive. This is a different Leverkusen side to the one that won the Bundesliga unbeaten not so long ago; they only have the sixth best attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season, and they’ve been sloppy at the back too.
Leverkusen’s average xG conceded is 1.42, which is still top six in the Bundesliga given how open that league is, but that just screams to me that Arsenal can take full advantage here. It will be interesting to see what tactics Mikel Arteta goes with – we all know Arsenal are very cagey. However, the Arsenal win looks the standout bet of the night for me – I’m happy to have a confident position on the away side here. Leverkusen have been average this season, and we know they will give Arsenal chances here. I’d have Arsenal closer to 1.5 than 1.6.
We have three fixtures kicking off at 8pm, and no doubt Bodo/Glimt v Sporting Lisbon will get lost compared to the other two blockbuster fixtures. However, Bodo/Glimt have been one of the stories of the Champions League this season. That win over Inter Milan was exceptional – before that they had already beaten Manchester City and Atletico Madrid in the league phase. Home advantage seems to be massively important to them; I would assume Sporting Lisbon are approaching this tie to make it as boring as possible. We have an exceptionally open betting heat – both sides are trading the same price at the time of writing at 2.68 with the draw 3.85. I’m happy to sit this one out betting wise.
Now for the blockbusters. In Paris, we have PSG hosting Chelsea in a repeat of the FIFA Club World Cup. These are two clubs with enormous financial backing and squads full of world class talent, but you could argue that they haven’t been at their best this season. PSG lost again in Ligue 1 at the weekend; they only have a one point lead at the top of the table – usually they have things wrapped up in France by now.
Chelsea have had some very disappointing results in the Premier League this season too – they currently sit just outside the Top Four. PSG come into the game as the odds on favourites, but only marginally because there are plenty of willing layers. PSG are trading 1.98 with Chelsea 4.0 and the draw is also 4.0 at the time of writing. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, because in my opinion this game absolutely screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.63 which looks cracking value – both sides like to attack and play an open game, but they haven’t been far away from a mistake at the back this season either. This should be a very entertaining game.
We finish with the one everyone has been talking about since the draw was made – Real Madrid against Manchester City at the Bernabeu. Pep Guardiola returns to his old enemies again; but in fairness these two have clashed a lot in the Champions League recently. This fixture has delivered some of the most memorable Champions League moments in recent history and another classic is surely on the cards.
Hopefully they go toe-to-toe again; but I don’t think either side can play another way! Both sides feel under immense pressure domestically this time though – obviously City are busy chasing Arsenal but Real have been through a lot this season already. The players pushed out Xabi Alonso, but in recent weeks attention has turned to Vinicius Jr, who just 12 months ago was the poster boy for Real Madrid and a Ballon d’Or favourite! He has been the focus of a growing frustration in the stands. His form has dipped, his decision making has drawn criticism, and there have been audible jeers from sections of the Bernabeu faithful in recent weeks. Instead of tracking back after losing the ball in a recent game, he started having words with the fans instead!
Pep Guardiola’s side were poor earlier in the season but have been quietly building momentum, it was a surprise to see them drop points against Nottingham Forest. While they have been playing better – their volume of chances created is down as their average xG created is only 1.71. When they were at their peak it was around 2.0 – for example Real Madrid have an average xG created of 2.11 in La Liga. Manchester City come into the game as the favourites at 2.1 with Real Madrid 3.55 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. I have to say I was very surprised to see City trading as short as 2.1 – I felt we’d have a more open market. We usually see goals and drama between these two, and Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.65 which is a very appealing bet. I wouldn’t be anyone off the City lay, but Overs looks the best value bet here.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Arsenal to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Three points win Over 2.5 goals PSG v Chelsea at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Three points win Over 2.5 goals Real Madrid v Manchester City at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CL2026
