WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LORIENT v PSG and ATALANTA v FIORENTINA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LORIENT V PSG
6pm We have a fascinating Wednesday night from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! The Coppa Italia Semi-Final will be the highlight, but we start the evening in Ligue 1 as Lorient host PSG. Lorient will be hoping that PSG have both eyes on their upcoming Champions League Semi-Final because they currently sit in the relegation zone. That could easily be the case with PSG 11 points clear at the top of the table – they basically have the title in the bag already and their focus will definitely be on the Champions League – they meet Dortmund next week. As I have said before, given the lack of quality in Ligue 1 PSG will always be judged on their Champions League performance and this season will be no different. It’s not a surprise to see PSG have the best attacking figure domestically – they have an average xG created of 1.86 but they have leaked a few chances this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.32 which is basically mid-table level. That is surprising considering we usually see sides that dominate their league with average xG conceded figures of close to 1.0. Inter Milan have an average xG conceded of 1.06 in Serie A for example.
We have an interesting market – PSG are the red-hot favourites at 1.4 with Lorient 8.4 and the draw is 5.8 at the time of writing. Obviously there’s a huge amount on the line for Lorient compared to PSG who are clear at the top of the table. Lorient are only three points from Metz in 15th though – those two recent wins for Metz have been huge in the relegation battle. There aren’t many positives for Lorient here though; their under-lining numbers are very poor. They are one of only two sides with an average xG created under 1.0, and their average xG conceded of 1.78 is the worst defensive figure in Ligue 1 this season. Lorient actually managed to hold PSG to a 0-0 draw on the opening weekend of the season but PSG did finish that game with an xG of over 2.0. I am surprised to see PSG trading as high as 1.4 here – I know they won’t be playing any of their key players that have a knock or anything like that with an eye on the Champions League Semi-Final, but I’d still have them closer to 1.3 here to beat a very average Lorient side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Lorient at 1.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LorPsg
ATALANTA V FIORENTINA
8pm Next we move over to Italy for the second Coppa Italia Semi-Final. Atalanta host Fiorentina and we have this tie perfectly set up heading into the second leg here; Fiorentina won the first leg 1-0 but Atalanta won’t be too unhappy with that given they have home advantage. Atalanta took a lot of football headlines recently when beating Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield in the Europa League Quarter-Final – while they lost the second leg, it was just a case of getting through the 90 minutes without drama. Home advantage could be absolutely key here because Fiorentina have been a much better side in front of their own fans this season. We know what we’re going to get from Fiorentina here; they are going to put XI men behind the ball and try to make it through with their one goal advantage. They finally broke a long run without a win away from home in Serie A at the weekend though with a 2-0 win over Salernitana – however we can’t read too much into that with Salernitana nailed to the bottom of the table. Fiorentina are creating more than they conceding away from home so their performance level hasn’t been too bad, but prior to the Salernitana win they had gone six away games without a win.
Atalanta are seven points ahead of Fiorentina in Serie A, and they will fancy their chances here with home advantage now. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.92 with Fiorentina 4.3 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. They have the third best attacking figure in Serie A this season, but with an average xG created of 1.59 they are quite a bit behind Napoli and Inter Milan with the best figures. They do have superb figures at home however; their average xG created is 1.9 and their average conceded is only 1.15. We had a very entertaining 3-2 when the sides met in Serie A, but I can see another very cagey affair here. As I said above, we know what coming from Fiorentina here and I can’t see Atalanta chasing the game too early either. They have been rock solid at the back and as well, and Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 2.05. I was very surprised to see this trading odds against, and the 2.05 looks cracking value!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlFio
