CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Champions League semi-final on Wednesday between LYON V BAYERN MUNICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
LYON V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm The second Champions League semi-final takes place on Wednesday night, and not many football fans would have expected this fixture! Everyone was expected an easy Manchester City win last week but Lyon shocked the world. Ironically Bayern Munich are now the exact same price to beat Lyon as Manchester City started, could lightning strike twice?
I can’t see another shock here. Bayern are peaking at the right time after an eight goal rout against Barcelona and their underlining numbers have been excellent all season. A lot of football fans like to knock the Bundesliga but Bayern are the best team in Europe at the moment and rightly favourites to win the Champions League.
Lyon were exceptionally lucky win against Manchester City. Indeed, City “won” the game on xG 2.68 to 0.87. Lyon were also lucky to get past Juventus as they managed to hold onto a 2-1 loss away from home, but xG says Juventus were unlucky not to score a third. I feel this is when Lyon’s luck will run out. The figures must revert to the mean eventually and with Bayern in superb form, it should be a smooth win for the Germans.
Looking at the stats, it’s hard to see how Lyon stop Bayern at the moment. They have been creating chances for fun since returning from lockdown and they have brought that form over to the Champions League from the Bundesliga. While Bayern have been ultra-impressive going forward, they are the better side the back here too.
Lyon have conceded an xG of over 15 goals in the Champions League this season, and you just can’t give up chances and chances against this Bayern side – they will take them. I like Bayern to cover the handicap here – they are trading 2.05 -2 goals on the Asian Handicap which looks good value but the bet I like the most is Any other Away Win at 3.15 in the Correct Score market. Lyon have been giving up too many chances, and I really fancy Bayern to score four or more here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Any Other Away Win (Correct Score) at 3.15 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLyoBay
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
