THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ITALY v GERMANY, GREECE v SCOTLAND and BULGARIA v REPUBLIC OF IRELAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ITALY V GERMANY
7.45pm We kick off the International Break with the Nations League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we have some massive two-legged affairs over the next few days. In between the Nations League Quarter-Finals and Playoffs, we start the World Cup Qualifiers too, but given that we have the Nations League Quarter-Finals; there are a lot of high profile sides missing for the World Cup Qualifiers. We have four cracking Nations League Quarter-Finals though; and the pick of them looks to be Italy hosting Germany in my opinion. This is the most open market of the night – Italy come into the game as the marginal favourites at 2.8 with Germany 2.9 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. It’s fair to say that both sides are going through a transitional period and you could easily call them disappointing over the last while. Italy were exceptionally poor at Euro 2024; going out without really raising a fight while Germany had increased expectation given they were hosts but that only really came from results in friendlies given they didn’t have to qualify. The jury is definitely out on both sides; but a Nations League win would certainly mean more than usual to both sides.
Germany topped a Group with the Netherlands who they have played a lot recently – it was a much improved performance from finishing second last in 2022/23 with only seven points. Italy actually toped that Group! This time around, Italy finished second behind France but they performed very well. They finished level on points with France; a mile clear of Belgium. The worry here from a German point of view is they played three away Nations League games at the Group stage and didn’t come away with a win in any of them – disappointing given they played Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina – that would definitely put me off backing them at 2.9. If anything, if I had to have a bet in the match odds market I would lean towards Italy from a value point of view but in general they have been untrustworthy recently so it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in them. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here but I expect a very cagey game here and Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.79. That looks cracking value – given we have two legs here I can’t see either side being too open here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ItaGrm
GREECE V SCOTLAND
7.45pm Next we go to the Nations League Playoffs, and we have some huge games for Scotland and the Republic of Ireland over the next week. We start with Greece hosting Scotland in the Group A Playoff. Greece finished behind England in an exceptionally weak Group along with Republic of Ireland and Final while Scotland were always up against it in a Group with Portugal, Croatia and Poland. They did remarkably well to avoid certain relegation to Group B next time which went to Poland – further highlighting their decline in recent years. As I have said before with Scotland; the Nations League has become exceptionally important for them getting to the Euros – they are always up against it given they will face the top sides in qualifying, and the Nations League has always given them a chance of getting to the Euros through the Playoffs. Staying in an A Group is obviously very important in that regard – but as I have said about this Scottish side, they aren’t good enough to not be under immense relegation pressure in an A Group but they are too good for a B Group at the moment unless one of the top sides drop down like England did.
I feel with the old format we could have seen Scotland bounce up and down from an A and B Group, but obviously there’s the new Playoffs now. Greece were pretty impressive despite the weak Group outside of England – they even bat England 2-1 at Wembley! It’s not a surprise to see Greece come into this game as the favourites – Scotland would be delighted with a draw here given how strong they have been with home advantage. Greece are trading 2.06 with Scotland 4.2 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Greece always had a decent amount of action in their games, so I’m going to keep stakes low here but Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.69. I really can’t see Scotland doing anything other than putting XI men behind the ball here – a draw would be a cracking result over two legs and I’d expect them to fully approach the game like that. They managed to hold Portugal to a 0-0 draw at the Group stage, and grind out a 1-0 win over Croatia. Both those results came at home, but I’d expect a very cagey Scottish performance.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GreSco
BULGARIA V REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
7.45pm Next we have a Group B Playoff as Bulgaria host Republic of Ireland. This is a fixture that the Republic of Ireland will be expected to come though given the low level from Bulgaria, but Ireland have been exceptionally poor in recent times. They were miles off England and Greece in Group B2 – only beating Finland to avoid the relegation spot. Bulgaria finished second in an exceptionally open Group C3 behind Northern Ireland but on paper while that Group was very competitive, it was also very weak. Northern Ireland have been really poor at the Nations League with Belarus and Luxembourg playing at a low level too. Both of these sides really flopped in Euro 2024 Qualifying, so getting or staying in that Group B bracket is exceptionally important. It’s highly unlikely that they qualify for a major tournament directly, so they will need to be going down the Playoff route and their Nations League ranking is obviously very important in that regard. It’ll be very interesting to see how Ireland deal with the pressure here; they haven’t been in many big games recently and as I said, they’ll be expected to come through this tie over the two legs.
We have an open betting heat; Republic of Ireland are the favourites at 2.42 with Bulgaria 3.65 and the draw is 3.1 at the time of writing. Ireland really haven’t managed too many wins recently so while there is a gulf in class between the sides based on the levels they play their football at, I still wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.42 on Ireland. That being said, sometimes they perform better away from home when they don’t have a lot of the ball and they can counter attack. They lack a huge amount of creativity when sides just sit back against them. Bulgaria kept their games in Group C3 exceptionally tight – five out of their six games finished with Under 2.5 goals – the other game was a 5-0 hammering from Northern Ireland which at the time was a surprise! Given neither side create a lot, Under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal at 1.51 in what should be a very tight game. I couldn’t put anyone off a position on Unders, however I’m going to go for something at a bigger price here; I like Under 1.5 goals at 2.56 in what should be a game without many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 1.5 goals at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BulIre
