Before delving into the depths of Thursday night’s Week 7 opener between the Seattle Seahawks at the San Francisco 49ers, what did we learn from last week’s NFL games?
Michael Vick is safe… for now. Philadelphia’s quarterback is a turnover machine, but his offensive line is getting beaten so badly they’ve been collectively renamed Mrs Ike Turner. Another two interceptions and a lost fumble in a 26-23 home loss to the Detroit Lions has many wondering how long it will be before head coach Andy Reid turns to Nick Foles, a third-round rookie. Vick’s 13 turnovers (of a collective 17) in six games is easily the worst in the NFL. But he’s also been sacked a league high 17 times. My guess is, despite the line issues, he will have plenty of free time to throw bones to his new dog, as he will be released before the Super Bowl (although no doubt he’ll miss and kill the cat). But at least he’ll be saving Philadelphia $15.5million in cash and free up $12.7m in cap space.
Niners grounded. The New York Giants set the blueprint for the rest of the NFL: establish a run, control the clock and force Alex Smith to beat you through the air. San Francisco were utterly dominated by Ahmad Bradshaw, whose 116 yards on 27 carries was a great follow-up to his 200-yard outing against Cleveland. Smith was the highest-rated passer in the NFL after five weeks, but he is yet to come anywhere near elite level, although they should still win the NFC West. The Giants also benefited from Philadelphia and Dallas losing – and with Washington up next, the Super Bowl champions can keep on a roll.
Passing numbers lie. In the 14 Week 6 games, 11 of the quarterbacks on the winning team had fewer passing yards than their counterparts. Just Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (338 yards) and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman (328 yards) recorded more yardage than their opponent’s quarterback. The adage ‘you have to pass to win’ did not seem to apply last week.
Belichick backlash. Expect to see a more focussed New England when they travel to face the New York Jets on Sunday. They produced a truly awful display, riddled with mistakes at Seattle. Percentage-wise you simply don’t win too many games when you throw the ball 58 times, as New England did. It was a horrible coaching job and having run all over Denver, their pass-happy philosophy against the Seahawks was somewhat bewildering. And Aaron Hernandez is back, too. This was their much-needed wake-up call.
Weakness in Seattle. The myth says Seattle’s defence is their best ever. That may be true, but New England moved the ball with ease and had many chances to win. The Patriots simply blew them – and squandered the game. Brady threw for 395 yards and Wes Welker had 138 yards on 10 catches. Still believe the Seattle defensive hype?
Return to normalcy. Big wins for the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not make them good teams. The usual pattern for such teams is to suffer a drop-off the following week. The Jets take travel to New England, the Titans head to Buffalo and the Buccaneers host New Orleans. At least two of that trio will fall on Sunday.
No icing, please. Icing the kicker should be outlawed and Tim Tebow’s arrival in Jacksonville would be “interesting” says Jaguars’ kicker Josh Scobee. CLICK HERE FOR MY DAILY MAIL STORY
He also told me that despite four poor drafts which have produced zero Pro Bowlers and a steady decline in results, GM Gene Smith is well liked. “I don’t know what the fans are thinking, I’m sure there’s mixed feelings, but I really like Gene – he’s a great person and he’s trying his hardest to assemble the right guys,” said Scobee. “We just have to put our trust in him that he’s going to bring in the guys who are going to get the job done. That’s the tough part about the NFL – some guys have to be held accountable when things don’t go right. He does a great job of handling it the right way.”
Champagne on ice. The ’72 Dolphins can start cracking open the champagne early, as Atlanta are not going to go unbeaten and emulate their record as the only team to go through a season undefeated. Not on the evidence of their fortunate 23-20 win over Oakland. Mike Nolan is a defensive guru and the missing link to get the Falcons over their playoff hump, but he does not have too much talent to work with on the back end and perhaps they need to lose a game to take the pressure off.
Heading south. This weekend will be pivotal for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who face each other in a crunch AFC North battle. The loser is probably done for the year. Pittsburgh face Washington, NY Giants and Baltimore in three of their next four games, while Denver and the NY Giants are Cincinnati’s next two opponents.
Farewell Ray Lewis. I’m sure the majority of fans wish Ray Lewis well in his recovery from torn triceps. Baltimore will certainly miss their influential linebacker. But if you don’t have anything nice to say about someone, don’t say it. So I won’t.
I’ll just leave you with this edition of the Musical Interlude and hope that you don’t send for the man in the white coat (he apparently can’t remember where it is, anyway).
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (Sky Sports HD, Friday, 1.25am)
As you will have read above, I’m not a believer in the Seattle Seahawks defence. While it is young and improving, it was diced and shredded by New England. While no shame in that, they were fortunate to beat both the Patriots and Green Bay, while Dallas gifted them another home win with a turnover-infested effort.
The coaching staff know they have to let the training wheels off rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, but all the while that Marshawn Lynch continues to run like a rolling ball of butchers’ knives, the Seahawks will always be a run-first team.
The fact that he had failed to top 160 yards in each of his first four outings but found big passing plays easier to come by against New England – to the tune of 293 yards – says more about the problems Bill Belichick is having with this secondary than the progress Wilson is making. The Patriots still can’t seem to get a consistent pass rush, which accentuates the negatives on the back end of their defence.
Seattle have won once on the road – at Carolina – and have lost to division opponents St Louis and Arizona. San Francisco should make it a trio of division losses, as it is easy to see the rookie quarterback, who goes up against a defence that was embarrassed by the New York Giants on Sunday, under intense pressure from the outset.
The Giants showed the rest of the NFL the blueprint to beat San Francisco: run at them and keep the play-calling balanced.
The difference between New York and Seattle is that the Giants have an excellent and experienced QB in Eli Manning, a talented receiving corps and a head coach who knows how to coach the heck out of a football game. Seattle’s receivers are serviceable at best and their head coach is Pete Carroll.
The most interesting aspect of this clash is how San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith responds after his worst outing in a long time. Smith went into the Giants’ clash as the most efficient passer in the NFL, having led his side to 79 points in two games against the Bills and Jets. But he threw two interceptions to Antrel Rolle and another to Prince Amukamara in the 26-3 defeat to the Giants, a result that was more emphatic than the score would suggest.
Smith was sacked six times and was under constant pressure. The loss of left tackle Joe Staley with concussion didn’t help their cause.
On the other side of the ball, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith were nowhere to be seen as Manning had plenty of time to find his wideouts. Many considered the San Francisco the best defensive line in the league before Sunday. But they were collectively left red-faced.
It was a poor coaching job by Jim Harbaugh, too. You don’t give a running back of Frank Gore’s calibre just eight carries. You feed that horse. You are a running team: stay true to your identity. Is the head coach the only one thinking that Smith can out-duel Manning?
Likewise, you don’t throw a rookie quarterback in for random plays against a defence playing as well as that of the Super Bowl champions. What message does it send to Alex Smith by replacing him with Colin Kaepernick?
Seattle lost by 13, 19 and 16 points on their last three trips to San Francisco, their longest such run without a win at Candlestick Park. So it is no surprise to see the Niners at 7.5-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap. That is spot on. You would probably like that half-point on your side and while the Seahawks have the momentum, they have yet to prove they can win consistently on the road, especially against good, angry and embarrassed teams like San Francisco. Therefore, I’m taking the favourites on the Moneyline and on the Handicap.
Suggestions:
Back – San Francisco Moneyline
Back – San Francisco – Handicap
Lay – Over 37.5 Total Points
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
