Buffalo Bills (5-4, 4-5 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (5-4, 5-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -6 (42)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: CB Ron Brooks (questionable– groin), WR Marcus Easley (questionable– knee), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable– ribs), RB Fred Jackson (questionable– groin), DE Jarius Wynn (out– knee)
Miami: TE Charles Clay (questionable– knee), LB Kelvin Sheppard (questionable– hip), TE Dion Sims (questionable– toe), G Daryn Colledge (doubtful– back), CB Cortland Finnegan (out– ankle), OT Branden Albert (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC East opponents
Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last 8 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. These teams have identical records and they’re very similar statistically, so we would be left to wonder what would happen once they met… IF they hadn’t already met this season, which of course they have. Back in Week 2 Buffalo rolled to a 29-10 win over these same Dolphins, and that was before the Bills upgraded their quarterback situation by benching E.J. Manuel.
2. The Bills have a fierce defense that is among the top-10 in both yards allowed and points allowed and leads the NFL in sacks. This week they’ll be facing a Miami offense with a re-shuffled line, as left tackle Branden Albert went down with a season-ending knee injury last week and guard Daryn Colledge is expected to miss another game because of a bad back. That will affect both Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill– who will be running for his life– and the Miami running game, which has been the backbone of the offense.
3. The Dolphins will be without starting cornerback Cortland Finnegan on Thursday night, which could be a problem against a Buffalo passing attack that has come alive since Kyle Orton took over at quarterback. Orton is averaging over 270 pass yards per game and he’ll finally be working with a competent running game again, as workhorse tailback Fred Jackson is back in the fold after missing some time with a groin injury.
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins have been one of the AFC’s best teams in recent weeks, winning 3 of their past 4 games despite only one of those games being played at home, where they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records. The Bills, on the other hand, produced just 13 points in a home loss last week and have covered just once in their last 7 road games against teams with winning records.
2. Miami has one of the league’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 4th in yards allowed, 5th in points allowed, and 2nd against the pass. This week they’ll be facing a Buffalo offense that has produced 22 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games, partially due to the continued absence of top playmaker C.J. Spiller. The Bills simply don’t have the offensive firepower to put up a fight against the stout Miami D.
3. The Buffalo defense is a bit overrated– they’ve allowed 60 combined points in their last two division games, after all– and Miami has a better offense than people realize. The Dolphins rank 11th in points scored and they’re especially good at home, where they’re averaging 27.2 points per game this season.
Prediction
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