Cleveland Browns (5-3, 4-2-2 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1, 4-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -6 (45)
Significant Injuries
Cleveland: WR Andrew Hawkins (questionable– thigh), DT Phil Taylor (questionable– knee), DE Billy Winn (questionable– toe), S Johnson Bademosi (out– concussion), TE Jordan Cameron (out– concussion)
Cincinnati: DE Robert Geathers (questionable– shoulder), RB Giovani Bernard (doubtful– hip), LB Rey Maualuga (doubtful– hamstring), OT Andre Smith (doubtful– ankle), LB Vontaze Burfict (out– knee), CB Leon Hall (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday night games
Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Cincinnati is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC North opponents
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The underdog is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have been playing well of late, winning 4 of their last 5 overall and limiting 3 of their last 4 opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Bengals, meanwhile, have only covered once since Week 3 and will be missing three of their best players on defense– cornerback Leon Hall and linebackers Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict.
2. The Cleveland offense has been humming right along since their Week 4 bye, producing 22 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games. The Cincinnati defense, meanwhile, has been reeling over the past month, allowing 23 points or more in 5 consecutive games. This is a recipe for disaster for the Bengals.
3. The Browns have been consistently undervalued this season– if you backed them on the handicap in all 8 of their games you would’ve only lost your money twice– and the trend continues this week, as they’re a whopping 6-point ‘dog against a struggling Cincinnati team. It’s worth remembering that the underdog traditionally excels in this rivalry, going 11-2-1 against the number in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best home teams, covering in 14 of their last 18 attempts, and the Browns are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with winning records. In Cleveland’s last road game they were beaten 24-6 by the winless Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that now sits at 1-8.
2. The Browns have an abysmal defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed and 31st against the run. Not only does Cincinnati have a top-10 rushing offense (121.4 rush yards per game, including 191 in last week’s win), they now have All Pro receiver A.J. Green back in the fold and nearly 100% healthy after a nagging toe injury cost him several games. The Bengals are averaging 30.8 points per game at home this season and they should light up the scoreboard again on Thursday night.
3. The Cleveland offense really hasn’t been able to overcome the loss of center Alex Mack, as they’re averaging nearly 100 fewer rushing yards per game without Mack anchoring the line. That means the offensive burden has fallen on quarterback Brian Hoyer and his underwhelming receiving corps, and the results have been ugly, as the Browns have averaged just 17 points per game over the past 3 weeks despite facing three teams whose defenses rank 27th or worse in points allowed (Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa Bay). It’s difficult to imaging Cleveland keeping pace with the high-scoring Bengals.
Prediction
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