Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2, 0-2 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -6 (46)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: DE Michael Johnson (questionable– ankle), RB Doug Martin (questionable– knee), DT Gerald McCoy (questionable– hand), LB Mason Foster (out– shoulder), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (out– ankle)
Atlanta: WR Roddy White (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC South opponents
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 September games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 Thursday night games
The UNDER is 6-2 in Tamps Bay’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 8-3 in Atlanta’s last 11 home games
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Falcons were exposed last week; they’re weak on both the offensive and defensive lines and they can’t run the ball. In other words, they haven’t fixed many of the issues that plagued them last season, when they finished with a 4-12 record. The Bucs haven’t won a game yet, but they went down to the wire with St. Louis last week and they’re getting a very generous 6 points here.
2. The Tampa defense has been impressive throughout the season’s first two weeks, surrendering just 19.5 points per game. The offense showed signs of life last week as well, with tailback Bobby Rainey turning in an explosive performance (22 car., 144 yds.). The team could be just beginning to gel under 1st-year coach Lovie Smith.
3. Through two weeks of the season the Atlanta defense has been an absolute sieve, surrendering a league-worst 472 yards per game. They won’t have an answer for a Tampa rushing attack that gave St. Louis fits last week, so the Bucs should be able to control the pace of the game and force Matt Ryan to match them score-for-score. In this type of game, I’ll back the team that is getting 6 points every time.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. In their first two games this season the Falcons faced New Orleans and Cincinnati, two teams that had top-5 defenses in 2013. Despite the stiff opposition, Atlanta currently ranks 2nd in the league in total offense thanks to a passing attack that is among the NFL’s best. The Bucs, meanwhile, have faced punchless offenses led by backup quarterbacks in both of their games this season. They’ll be in for a rude awakening on Thursday night.
2. Matt Ryan is an elite quarterback who has as much “arm talent” as any player in the league. His counterpart in this game, Tampa’s Josh McCown, is most definitely not elite. Over last two games McCown has reminded everyone of why he hasn’t previously been able to secure a starting job despite a decade of trying: he just isn’t very good. Backbreaking turnovers and a QB rating of 75.1 is what the veteran has produced thus far in 2014.
3. The Bucs ranked 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in the NFL in total offense last season and not much has changed, as they’ve averaged just 15.5 points and fewer than 300 total yards per game over the past two weeks. They simply won’t be able to keep up with an Atlanta offense that is among the league’s best.
Prediction
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