TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP: Golf is pretty much a year-round sport these days and with the Ryder Cup next week it certainly doesn’t feel like the season is wrapping up, but we have indeed reached the official end of the road for the 2016 PGA Tour season, as the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings have gathered at famed East Lake Golf Club in suburban Atlanta for the Tour Championship.
Built in 1904 and completely redesigned by Donald Ross in 1913, East Lake has long been regarded as one of the finest courses in the Southeast and has hosted a wide range of premier events, from the U.S. Amateur to the Ryder Cup and, for the past 12 years, this tournament. A par-70 that measures over 7,300 yards, it’s by no means short, but it hasn’t necessarily favored bombers, either. Driving accuracy is paramount, however, as plenty of trouble awaits errant tee shots and the smallish Bermuda greens often won’t hold shots out of the rough. There are definite birdie opportunities out there, but East Lake is a course with plenty of teeth and the scoring will look more like a major championship than the Phoenix Open.
What’s at stake this week? Just a cool $10 million, that’s all. Every player in the field has a mathematical chance at the massive payday that comes with being the overall FedEx Cup champion, but the top five in the standings are the only ones who control their own destiny– a win this week would lock it up. The 30th-ranked player (Charl Schwartzel), on the other hand, needs both a win and a mind-boggling set of circumstances to finish the week as the overall champ, but it’s still possible.
Frankly, I don’t think the big-picture points race should have any effect on bettors at all. I mean, it’s not as if someone is going to try harder (or not as hard) based on where they are in the standings, and most of these guys are so rich that big piles of money simply don’t make the palms sweaty, even really big piles of money.
Jordan Spieth is the defending champion and his record in this event is tremendous, but his price (8.2) is awful short for a guy who hasn’t registered a top-5 since June and was a disappointment in the year’s final three majors. Besides, there are plenty of other blue-chip options from which to choose this week, and a couple of interesting long-odds options, as well. Here’s what I’m going with:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Dustin Johnson (6.6)- Johnson heads the market this week, and with good reason: his victory at the BMW Championship was his third win in his last eight starts, a span that also includes a runner-up and two other top-10 finishes. Simply put, he’s the best player on the planet right now, and there’s really no one else who can even make a good argument. And although he’s yet to win at East Lake, he’s on a run of three straight top-10s in this event– including back-to-back top-5s in 2014 and 2015– so he obviously feels quite comfortable with the layout. This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering he’s from nearby South Carolina and has played old-style, Bermuda-covered courses his entire life. I’m normally not one to ride with the man at the very top of the market– this is the first time I’ve done it all year, as a matter of fact– but Johnson is the clear favorite this week and is worth a bet at the current price.
Emiliano Grillo (42.0)- Grillo began the season with a bang by winning the Frys.com Open, and a bookend victory this week would certainly put an exclamation point on what has been a tremendous rookie campaign. And don’t think he can’t do it– the young Argentine has been playing very well of late, making the cut in all three Playoff events and finishing runner-up at The Barclays, and his performance in major championships this year (top-20s in the Masters, Open, and PGA) proves that he isn’t intimidated by the big moment. You have to hit it straight at East Lake and that’s right up Grillo’s alley, as he ranks 17th on Tour in driving accuracy and 5th in total driving. There’s a lot to like here.
Justin Thomas (100.0)- Thomas didn’t really have the type of breakout year that many anticipated, but he’s an undeniable talent whose length off the tee and proficiency with his mid-to-long irons make him an ideal candidate for success at East Lake. He’s playing sold golf at the moment, too, finishing third in the Travelers Championship last month and 10th in The Barclays, and he’s bubbled up to contend intermittently since his win at the CIMB Classic last November. Though he’s not yet proven that he can win an event of this magnitude, astute observers realize it’s a matter of “when” and not “if” with Thomas. Oh, and did I mention that he’s currently trading at 100.0 and only needs to beat 29 guys this week?
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jason Day (1.91) vs. Jordan Spieth (1.91)
Day has overtaken Spieth in the minds of many and has made some bold “win or go home” proclamations heading into this week, but he was last seen withdrawing from the BMW Championship with a back injury and he’s never really contended at East Lake in five previous appearances. Spieth, on the other hand, has made this tournament his own personal playground, winning last year and finishing runner-up in 2013. He’s also logged two top-10s in the three Playoff events, so his game is in good shape at the moment. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.91
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
The most compelling storyline this week probably involves Bubba Watson and his quest to make the Ryder Cup team. Despite being ranked 7th in the world he has not yet been chosen by captain Davis Love III, and Love will make his final selection immediately following play on Sunday. How will this affect Watson, who’s already known as emotional and somewhat prickly at times? He’s got a good record in this event, taking home top-5 finishes in two of the past three years, but his recent form has not been great, as he’s now gone 12 consecutive starts without finding the top-10. Mickelson hasn’t done anything spectacular since his runner-up showing at the Open, but he did find the top-15 at The Barclays and has logged six top-25 finishes in his last ten starts, so his game is in fairly good shape. Plus, he’s a past champion here with a long record of success at East Lake, so there will be positive vibes at every turn for the legendary Lefty. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.91
