TRADING FOOTBALL FRIENDLIES: Trading the footie can be tricky at the best of times. Especially when it’s a ‘friendly match’ with players motivation fluctuating. If you’re planning to bet, here are a few pointers to bear in mind…
Be Cautious Before The Start – You just don’t know what will happen in a friendly before the game. During the regular season, you can assess the league table but with friendlies players aren’t fully fit yet and a team might play a group of youngsters instead of their first side; you can never really judge anything before the game so wait until it starts and watch it. Obviously this brings its own benefits too, if you’re fast enough to act.
Lower Stakes – Players treat friendlies as a way to warm up for the season ahead, adopting this approach can be wise when trading them. There is no feeling worse than losing big money on a friendly match so instead of going all out, try smaller stakes just to try and get to know the market before increasing them. The most opportunity for traders is often in the second half anyhow.
Lay The Favorite – Trading is all about managing risk and letting the profits take care of themselves. If you’re watching a friendly where the ‘bigger’ of the two teams is taking it easy it may be worth laying on them. You could have a big team not really playing seriously and just using it as a warm-up exercise going up against a smaller team that have already played a few friendlies and are a little fitter and more prepared. In this scenario, the big team will still be the favourite because of their name, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they are pushing hard. Limiting the downside is a great way to play this situation cautiously.
Remember Motivations – The most important thing to consider is the motivations of the two sides. Just recently Australia played Germany in a friendly and of course the world champions were favourites but after just a few minutes, you could see who was up for it and who wasn’t. Australia were confident and were taking it seriously whereas Germany were a little less motivated and were probably just using it as a training game for Euro 2016. In the end, it finished as a draw and so a lay on Germany would have been lucrative.
Finally, a little side note that should be mentioned is that you should always look at where the game is being played. If it is in a neutral venue, it is probably a commercial event for sponsorship reasons and therefore you are likely to see more goals than usual.
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