The season’s second major takes place at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pennsylvania, starting on Thursday, and BETDAQ offers a myriad of trading opportunities.
The U.S. Open is the most democratic of the Majors. Of the 9,860 entrants, 156 have made it to Merion. Seventy-six were exempt, while 80 earned their spots through the qualifying process: 111 local qualifiers conducted at 18 holes, followed 36-hole qualifying at 13 sites. Of the 80 qualifiers, 20 made it through both local and sectional qualifying.
Another feature that makes this tournament unique is the use of Merion’s traditional wicker baskets instead of flags. The baskets have been used at every USGA championship at Merion since the 1916 U.S. Amateur. The only exception was the 1950 U.S. Open.
This is the fifth U.S. Open held here. Merion hosted the championship in 1934 (won by Olin Dutra), 1950 (Ben Hogan), 1971 (Lee Trevino) and 1981 (David Graham). There are 43 first-time competitors at Merion this week. The player with the most experience is Phil Mickelson, who is making his 24th start. Mickelson, who finished runner-up in the St Jude Classic last weekend, made his U.S. Open debut in 1990 at Medinah.
The 6,996 yard par 70 is a short course by PGA Tour standards, with just two par 5s. Both of those come in the first four holes. The second hole, at 556 yards, is the only one reachable in two, as the fourth hole plays 628 yards and the green is guarded by a small creek and several bunkers.
Seven of the par 4s are 411 yards or less, but two are over 500 yards. Expect the driver to be used on the fifth, sixth, 14th and 18th as well as on the two par 5s.
Because the course is so short, the fairways have been narrowed. But the hoped-for dry and fast conditions have not materialised. Almost four inches of rain fell at Merion on Friday and Monday’s practice rounds were also interrupted because of the rain. There is also a chance of thunderstorms between now and Thursday, and rain is expected for Thursday’s early rounds.
Given the course is almost at saturation point, a softer Merion will be easier to navigate. Had faster conditions materialised, wayward tee shots would be punished, as the ball would invariably skip off the turf and into the dense rough. If your man hits his lines, the ball won’t release into the rough. Expect to see long irons and soft greens, which will hold the ball.
The emphasis on accuracy from tee to green and on scramblers and putters would be far more important if the course had played faster. It would also put a premium on strategy. Aggressive players may have struggled.
But a soft Merion means strategy may not be such a prerequisite, patience might not be such a virtue. Those who are long off the tee, not usually such a factor on short courses, may well be able to bomb without too much danger of ending in the rough. There are plenty of blind tee shots, so knowing the lines will be crucial. But a soft course means if your man is on his game, he’ll have birdie chances. Most U.S. Opens are about ball striking rather than putting, but if the course plays soft, as expected, then it could become a putting contest and an unusually low number could win it.
Par 3 Performance and GIR over 200 yards could be underrated stats this week and if the course play especially soft, with the majority of the field looking at hitting 240 yards off the tee and playing a wedge to the green of 130-140 yards away, GIR percentage between 125-150 yards seems a viable place to try and find the winner.
Adam Scott is attempting to become the sixth player in history to win the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year and he has played just twice since beating Angel Cabrera in a thrilling playoff at The Masters. His two outings since Augusta saw him finish in the top 20 on both occasions and he has not finished out of the top 15 in any major since the 2011 Open Championship. His consistency means he will certainly have his supporters at 26.0.
The field is headed, naturally enough, by Tiger Woods, who has the mental toughness and the patience required to win, despite being more of a bomber off the tee. This course may not play to his strengths, but the same could be said of Sawgrass, one of the most mentally challenging courses on the Tour. And look what he did there, winning The Players Championship with a grind-it-out, wear-them-down performance that deserves to be ranked as one of his sweetest and hard-earned victories. Woods is available at 7.0 with BETDAQ, with Phil Mickelson next best at 23.0.
Deciding if Mickelson will blow hot or cold from week to week is a bit like rooting for the Chicago Cubs or booking a summer holiday in England. He is teasing rather than pleasing. And he’s also producing a nasty trend: After his three previous top 10s this year, he’s missed the cut in his next start twice and was a dismal T60 at Pebble Beach. So if this trend continues, the odds are against him following up his good showing in the St Jude Classic. In fact, he would begin to look a solid lay at 3.65 in the Top 10 Finish market.
One man who could easily finish in the Top 10 is Lee Westwood, who has come close in numerous majors, including three top3s in the U.S. Open. He has also five top 10s and eight top 25s in majors. While his putting is not what it should be, particularly from between 5ft and 10ft, his Scrambling stats, which were previously sketchy, have been off the charts this season. That means he’s a viable 4.1 back in the Top 10 Finish market, even if you’d perhaps want a point or so bigger to make it a real value play.
While most players thrive on confidence, the trends would seem to show that Rory McIlroy would need to be brimming with self-assurance before winning a tournament. Typically he trends upwards before winning but he does not appear to be doing that at present. While he has the talent to get a run together quickly, I would not be in any rush to back him at 7.2 in the Top 5 Finish market.
So who will be in the Merion mix? Here are six with appeal…
Tiger Woods @ 7.0
No surprises here. A 15th Major could be on the cards as Woods bids to end a five-year skid since winning the 2008 U.S. Open. Woods has seven PGA Tour wins in the past 15 months, including four in just eight events this year. But the fact that the World No.1 is a prohibitive favourite after a terrible T65 finish at the Memorial Tournament and playing a course in Philadelphia that he is not familiar with, says plenty about his chances. He is not using the driver as much, he is precise with his irons and one bad week aside, he is shaping the ball well. The only issue – and it is a huge one – is the pressure he may be putting himself under to break his Major drought. If he gets a good start, and he has a chance to be at his intimidating best playing alongside Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy, he can take the title.
Graeme McDowell @ 24.0
If there is one track that plays a little like Merion, with its narrow fairways, emphasis on good iron play and patiently plotting a course, then it is Harbour Town, the scene of McDowell’s sole victory this year. A past U.S. Open winner at Pebble Beach, McDowell contended in the tournament last year and also in the Open Championship. You have to love the fact that he is first in the Driving Accuracy and Scrambling stats, and a respectable 17th in GIR percentage between 125 and 150 yards. He is also fourth in putting between 15 to 20 feet (holing nine of 32 attempts). Throw in the fact that he has form in bad weather – he is from Northern Ireland, after all – and that he is in form, with four top 10 finishes from eight PGA starts, and there is plenty to like about McDowell’s chances.
Justin Rose @ 31.0
He’s longer than Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood with the driver, nips the iron shots like a sure-handed pick-pocket and generally lag putts well. Unfortunately stroke-play rules require the ball to finish in the hole. Just a reasonable week with the putter would have you drooling over Rose’s chances. Putting has been the only thing holding him down. He is 17th in Driving Accuracy and tops the charts in GIR percentage at 200-plus yards. If you are looking to make a case against the Englishman, it is his sketchy U.S. Open record, which includes two top 10s but four missed cuts in seven starts. Also, he does not rank in the top 100 in the Par 4 Birdie or Better category. Still, the plusses far outweigh the minuses.
Billy Horschel @ 100.0
In contrast with Rose, Billy Horschel ranks second only to Bubba Watson in the Par 4 Birdie or Better category, achieving at least a birdie in 123 of the 604 par 4s he’s played this season. He is also in the top 30 in GIR percentage from 200 yards-plus and if it becomes a putting contest, Horschel is fourth-best putting from between 15 to 25 yards (making 23.35% of his 167 attempts), which makes up for his vanilla scrambling ability. The Zurich Classic winner had a little time off after his success in New Orleans and has taken a while to get going again. However, his T10 last week at the St Jude Classic provides a clear indication he is trending upwards heading to Philly. He should be half these odds.
Russell Henley @ 122.0
If you believe that putting will go a long way to determining the winner on Sunday, then Henley would be in the argument. He ranks third in putts made from between 15-25 feet, third in Par 4 Birdies or Better, and fifth in GIR percentage of between 175-200 yards. A respectable 40th in Driving Accuracy and three top 10 finishes this season – including a T6 at Harbour Town and a victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii – adds up to a contender.
Kevin Streelman @ 156.0
He has missed two consecutive cuts after three consecutive top six finishes – including a T3 at Harbour Town – but he has bounced back well after missing the cut this year, winning the Tampa Bay Championship after an MC at the Puerto Rico Open, and a T3 in the RBC Heritage after failing to make the weekend at The Masters. You can’t argue with five top 10 finishes from 15 events and in his last eight tournaments he’s been in the top 21 each time he has played the weekend. Sixteenth in Driving Accuracy percentage, he is almost automatic on the green from five to 15 feet and is among the best ball strikers in the game.
WINNING MARGIN
BETDAQ have plenty of markets to trade on, including the winning margin. In the last 10 years, the U.S. Open has seen three tournaments won by a single stroke, two via a play-off, three by two strokes, one by three strokes and Rory McIlroy’s astonishing eight-stroke victory in 2011. It may not be as close this year, with the course playing so soft, so we’ll take a stab at three strokes at 5.4 and four strokes at 9.6.
HOLE IN ONE?
The odds are stacked against this happening, but with the greens playing so soft, you can attack the pins more than usual, so it would not be a surprise if at least one hole was aced. Take the 2.64 and be positive that it will happen.
TOP AUSTRALIAN PLAYER
Adam Scott will be on many people’s list in this market. After all, he hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in a major since the 2011 Open Championship. But pairing him with Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy could work against him and opposing Scott might be the best bet. Jason Day has yet to really rediscover the form which saw him go so close in The Masters and at bigger prices Marc Leishman (@ 10.5) makes plenty of appeal. Leishman, with four top 10s, including a decent T9 in the RBC Heritage, should thrive on the par fours. He has excellent iron accuracy from 200-plus yards and is 31st in scoring average.
FIRST-ROUND THREE-BALLS
Take Nick Watney to win his three-ball against Peter Hanson and Hunter Mahan. Watney is hitting a whopping 68.72% of Greens In Regulation, ranking ninth in GIR percentage between 150-175 yards and 15th between 175-200 yards. If he gets a hot putter, he could contend at a decent price.
Henrik Stenson’s superior iron play also give us reason to think he can beat man-crush Robert Garrigus and Ryan Moore in his opening day three-ball.
David Lingmerth produces big performances from time to time, as he showed at Sawgrass. He can also bomb. But his game around the greens looks tailor-made for this course and the Swede may edge Aaron Baddeley and Rory Sabbatini one of the more intriguing trios.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Charl Schwartzel to beat Luke Donald
Donald has made the cut six times in nine in U.S. Opens, but has just two top 25s and zero top 10s. This short course suits his game, but Schwartzel has been far more consistent. A third at the Byron Nelson and T8 at Memorial means he could even be building towards a second Major, and he’s T16, T9 and T38 in his last three Opens.
Steve Stricker to beat Keegan Bradley
Striker has made the cut in 15 of his last 17 U.S. Opens and has been placed in the top 20 on the last two occasions. He ranks second in Driving Accuracy and 8th in GIR from over 200 yards. Bradley may get a little too aggressive and if he does, the rough will make him pay.
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