Played in extreme heat on hard courts, the Australian Open takes some winning after the winter break. Defending champion Novak Djokovic will be looking to retain his Aussie title in Melbourne but is it a one horse race as the outright market suggests?
Men’s Singles Preview:
Novak Djokovic, on a winning streak of 21 matches at Melbourne, has no doubt been handed a kind draw. With Nadal, Federer, Del Potro, Tsonga and Murray all having to do battle in the other half, it really does look plain sailing for the Serb for the first number of rounds at least. The current World No. 2 is trying to make history and become the first player in the Open Era to win five Australian Opens.
The Serbian has won the last three renewals, also successful in 2008 and comes into this year’s Open a very warm favourite.
Djokovic deserves his billing at the top of the market. A winner of six Grand Slams, five of which have come on hard courts, the Serb is the man to beat. Once the draw was made Djokovic’s price shortened to odds-on on Betdaq, reflecting his favourable draw.
In what would be a repeat of last years fourth round encounter, Djokovic’s first big test may well come from the Swiss, Stanislas Wawrinka. The pair battled out a remarkable five-setter in last year’s tournament, Djokovic prevailed 12-10 in the fifth and Wawrinka may well push the Serbian all the way should they clash again.
Unfortunately their head 2 head record strongly favours Djokovic 15-2, and you have to go way back to 2006 for Wawrinka’s last victory over the “Joker”, hardly an encouraging stat.
So what of the other contenders and who, if any, can halt the Djokovic dominance? Last year’s beaten finalist and current Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray faces a tough test. The current World No. 4 lost in straight sets to Wawrinka in last year’s US Open at the quarter final stage, and has undergone back surgery since to correct a continuous injury problem.
A fully fit Murray, twice a Grand Slam winner, would be dangerous, but the fact remains that the Scot needs a career best performance to lift the trophy. The World No. 4 is also on the same side of the draw as Federer and Nadal and with fitness doubts; I pretty much doubt the Scot can lift the first Grand Slam of the year.
So what are the chances of arguably the greatest player to ever hold a racket? Now 32-years-old, Roger Federer has had a remarkable career and will make history when he walks out onto the Melbourne court. It will be his Fifty Seventh Grand Slam in a row, a new record that may never be eclipsed again.
Unfortunatley the Swiss, winner of four Australian Opens, last success was in 2010, simply has too many miles on the clock to prevail in the Melbourne heat. When push comes to shove against the game’s elite, the former World No.1 finds it difficult to control the game and it’s for that reason the Fed Express is confidently overlooked to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.
That brings us to the World No. 1 and current French/US Open Champion, Rafael Nadal. Nadal became the first Spaniard ever to lift the Australian Open title back in 2009, his only victory to date at the venue.
The Aussie Open is the only slam that the left-hander has not won on more than one occasion. Having missed last year’s tournament through injury and on the back of his best ever hard court season in 2013, I expect Nadal to come out with all guns blazing.
So can Nadal beat Djokovic in Australia? The answer to that question may well be yes. In 2012 the pair played one of the greatest finals ever witnessed in any Slam. In a match that swung in both men’s favour on numerous occasions, it was Djokovic who eventually prevailed 7-5 in the fifth, after a record breaking five hours and fifty three minutes on court.
The bare facts suggest there is nothing between the two superstars. Last year’s French Open semi-final on clay developed into another classic. In what was again a close five-setter, Nadal eventually overcame the Serb 9-7 in the fifth; a defeat that Djokovic publically said was hard to stomach.
Roland Garros is the only Grand Slam that has eluded Djokovic to date. The fact that since that defeat the Serb has also lost two more Grand Slam finals, lost to Murray at Wimbledon and to Nadal at the US Open, both defeats lead me to believe that Djokovic is vulnerable.
If there is going to be a first time winner and a changing of the guard, it may well be Juan Martin del Potro. If the talented South American can somehow negotiate past Nadal if they meet, he could go all the way.
The former US Open Champion has had no luck since lifting his one and only Grand Slam title back in 2009.
At the start of the 2010 season, Del Potro got a wrist injury which kept him out of the game for nine months. Before that injury, Del Potro was ranked No. 4 in the world, but upon his return he had slipped down the rankings to No. 485.
At the semi-final stage in Wimbledon last year the South American went five sets with Djokovic. If the 25-year-old can build on last year’s progression, now ranked No. 5 in the world, the Argentine will be a major force this season and just maybe in this year’s Australian Open, unfortunately Nadal may be in the way.
Of the others, keep an eye on Gasquet and Ferrer. Now 31-years-old, David Ferrer has been to two Australian Open semi-finals, 2011 & 2013 and it may well pan-out that the Spaniard plays Djokovic in the semis.
Richard Gasquet needs to step up and fulfil his potential. Now 27-years-old it is not beyond all possibilities that the Frenchman will shine here in Australia but highly unlikely.
For me though, I take Nadal and Djokovic to dominate the proceedings, with Nadal eventually claiming his second Australian Open title.
Wagga Man’s Prediction;
Winner; Rafael Nadal Runner up; Novak Djokovic
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