Known as the Blue Riband of steeple chasing, the Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious race during the National Hunt calendar. Run over a distance of 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs, 22 fences are jumped and it is the ultimate test for any thoroughbred.
With a roll of honour featuring household names such as, Arkle, Desert Orchid and Kauto Star, the Gold Cup is the most valuable Grade 1 chase run in Britain.
So of those going for gold, who will be victorious?
First of all, it may pay to look at a few trends in the race.
• Ten out of the last ten winners have started in the first three in the betting.
• Ten of the last ten winners have run in either the Lexus Chase or King George that season. (9 out of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
• 12 of the last 15 winners of the Gold Cup have been placed at the Festival before
• Biggest priced winner in the last 10 years was Synchronised in 2012 at odds of 8/1.
The above are just trends, but they do highlight that it is a race that has few surprises and it may pay to concentrate on the runners at the head of the market.
Cue Card
Trained by Dorset handler Colin Tizzard and ridden by his son Joe, this strapping 7-year-old has a great Cheltenham Festival pedigree. Winner of two Grade 1’s at the festival, Bumper 2010 (2m) and last year’s Ryan Air Chase (2m5f), the son of King’s Theatre is top of many punters list.
There is no doubt that if he stays the trip of 3m2 plus furlongs, he is in with a big chance. But will the gelding stay against top quality opposition?
After winning a Grade 1 Chase at Haydock over 3m1f in November, beating Bobsworth, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste in the process, it looked like all stamina doubts were put to bed. However, the King George run over 3 miles may have told us a different story.
After travelling like a dream throughout, the 7-year-old faltered dramatically between the last two fences, allowing the Noel Fehily ridden Silviniaco Conti draw clear, to record a three and a half length victory.
The sight of Cue Card simply dying up the Kempton straight leads me to believe that the Tizzard trained horse will not get home over an extended 3m2f. Yes he likes the track, has won two grade 1 events at Cheltenham, but both were over much shorter trips.
To win a Gold Cup, you simply have to stay well and for me Cue Card a class act over shorter, will struggle to get home.
Silviniaco Conti
Trained by four times winning trainer Paul Nicholls, has won three of the last six, this exciting 8-year-old for me represents the biggest threat to current holder Bobs Worth. Travelling strongly in last year’s race, the son of Dom Alco came down heavily three out, when in third position.
It’s impossible to know if he would have beaten “Bob” that day, but my suspicion is he wouldn’t have and Cheltenham may not totally play to his strengths.
However, you could not but be impressed by the way he went about his business in the King George. Having jumped well on his second start of the season (needed first run); the French bred stayed on powerfully from three out, beating Cue Card by three and a half lengths, a reversal of their previous meeting at Haydock in November.
However, having no winning form at Cheltenham swings the balance in Bobs Worth favour but he should be a tough nut to crack come March.
Bobs Worth
Last year’s winner comes into this race on the back of an impressive victory in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. The Barry Geraghty ridden gelding previously flopped in the Haydock chase won by Cue Card on his seasonal reappearance, a performance best forgotten, as the 9-year-old had previously never been out of the first three in his career.
Some facts are hard to ignore. The Nicky Henderson trained gelding has never tasted defeat around Cheltenham, record reads ran five, won five. Add the way the then 8-year-old forged clear after the last in last year’s renewal, makes him without doubt the one they all have to beat.
The son of Bob Back has also got winning form on good ground, as well as soft and has beaten Cue Card (gave 7lb) as a novice over 2m4f, be it by a short head. When you consider also that Bobs Worth has improved tenfold over further, it’s hard to envisage Cue Card beating him over an extended 3m2f.
So what’s the Irish bred weakness, if any?
Well there is a slight chance that on fast ground he could be taken off his feet early on, resulting in too much to do in the latter stages. It’s a big if, and barring a fall/accident it’s the only way I foresee him not defending his title.
Bobs Worth is a solid/worthy favourite, and it will take a good one to beat him come March.
First Lieutenant
The Mouse Morris trained First Lieutenant is an interesting runner. A model of consistency in Grade 1 events, the now 9-year-old deserves his chance at the big one. No stranger to Cheltenham, won 2011 Neptune Hurdle, he also finished second to Cue Card in last year’s Ryan Air Chase over the shorter distance of 2m5f.
At Aintree the following month he went on to victory in the Grade 1 Bowl Chase over 3m1f, suggesting the son of Presenting is more effective over longer distances and on good ground. (Both Grade 1 victories have come on good ground).
After a couple of disappointing efforts this season, the gelding then bounced back to form by finishing second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase, a run that puts him right in the frame and when you consider the soft going, it was a massive effort.
The gelding showed similar form finishing third in the Hennessy, won by Last Instalment in what was even softer ground than the Lexus, so consistency is his forte.
The problem is the Irish bred finds it very hard to win chase races at the top level. In eighteen career chase starts, the O’Leary owned gelding has been victorious on just three occasions, and although I suspect he will be there at the finish, I suspect one or two will get the better of him.
Al Ferof
A stable companion of Silviniaco Conti, the son of Dom Alco is bidding to become the first grey to win the Gold Cup since Desert Orchid back in 1989. The 9-year-old was a top novice hurdler, winning the 2011 Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Festival.
Once chasing, his biggest victory came in the 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup also at Cheltenham during the November festival over 2m4f. An injury though kept him off the track for twelve months after this success, and it is not easy to evaluate the grey’s chance since.
On the face of it, his third placing behind Siviniaco Conti in the King George at Christmas is not good enough and with big stamina doubts after his second to Harry Topper at Newbury in what was bottomless ground, the grey may not turn out at all and is confidently overlooked.
Last Instalment
Owned by Michael O’Leary, (also owns First Lieutenant) this 9-year-old put up a remarkable performance in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. In what was only his second start since a two year layoff, the gelding slammed both Tidal bay and First lieutenant by more than eight lengths over 3miles, be it in very heavy ground.
The Philip Fenton trained Irish bred was also a top novice chaser beating First Lieutenant in a Grade 1 chase on good ground back in 2011, so his performance at Leopardstown was not totally unexpected.
If the son of Anshan handles Cheltenham’s undulations (has never been out of Ireland), he is in with a big shout and will be a threat to both Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti.
For me though I ‘d rather be on a selection that has form on the track and considering the Gold Cup will be run at a much stronger clip than his Hennesyy victory, both Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti are favoured.
The second season chasers simply don’t look good enough at this stage. Lord Windermere, Dynaste, Lyreen Legend and Rocky Creek may all be out of their depth, if turned out.
Of the quartet though, Lord Windermere may be capable of better. Last year’s RSA Chase winner has been disappointing on all his starts this season, but maybe capable of better once back at Cheltenham.
No preview would be complete without the mention of The Giant Bolster. Trained by David Bridgwater, the 9-year-old has a great Gold Cup pedigree. After finishing second in 2012 on good ground, he followed up last year with a good fourth behind Bobs Worth, on much softer ground.
If the ground rides good, the son of Black Sam Bellamy may well run another big race.
Summary
Bobs Worth will take all the beating. The weather at this stage suggests the ground be no faster than good, perfect jumping ground were the best horse should prevail.
The Nicky Henderson trained gelding has all the credentials to follow up on last year’s success and barring an accident will be hard to beat.
Silviniaco Conti rates the biggest danger on the back of his King George victory and on the fact the 8-year-old travelled well until his departure in last year’s renewal.
Last Instalment has a live chance but the fact the 9-year-old has no previous form at the track preference is for the above two.
Cue Card is a top notch chaser but for me the English bred will not get home over the extended 3m2f.
First Lieutenant and The Giant Bolster may fare best of the rest.
Wagga Man’s Verdict
Bobs Worth
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